Is the Crypto Bull Run Still Alive? A Deep Dive Into Bitcoin’s Technical Analysis
By Aziz Zamani
June 2, 2025, at 6:03 PM UTC
Edited by Jayson Derrick
As Bitcoin navigates a recent pullback, the cryptocurrency community is left questioning the status of the current bull run. Is the bullish trend truly intact, or are we facing the possibility of a significant correction? Presently trading above a crucial channel low and the 200-day moving average, observers suggest these levels could establish a foundation for Bitcoin’s next upward phase, potentially targeting $116,000. ## Recent Market Movements
Bitcoin (BTC), after achieving a new all-time high of approximately $111,900, has entered what appears to be a corrective phase. The price has retraced towards a high-timeframe support level at $104,300—a critical mark that signifies the lower boundary of a bullish channel that’s characterized Bitcoin’s price action for several months.
History indicates that rejections from the upper boundary of this channel typically lead to retests of the channel’s lower boundary, which is precisely what has unfolded. Currently, Bitcoin hovers just above the 200-day moving average—a metric closely monitored by institutional traders and recognized as a reliable indicator of macro support.
Key Technical Indicators
Several essential technical points have emerged from the recent price action:
-
Channel Low Support at $104,300: This level is vital for maintaining the structural integrity of the ongoing bullish trend. Holding this support is crucial for a potential continuation upward.
-
200-Day Moving Average: Trading above this average reinforces a bullish outlook, provided this support level is sustained.
-
Trendline Resistance: Above the current price point, a descending trendline poses minor resistance. A breakout above this line would suggest a structural shift indicating the onset of a new bullish leg.
-
Bullish Market Structure Since $74,000: Bitcoin has displayed a consistent pattern of higher highs and higher lows. As long as this trend persists, the bullish sentiment remains intact.
-
“Power of Three” Accumulation Structure: This theory indicates that Bitcoin is currently in an accumulation-manipulation-distribution phase. Reclaiming the price channel would confirm a bullish reversal according to this model.
-
Failed Auction Possibility: If Bitcoin can reclaim the channel after manipulation, it suggests a failed auction scenario, which significantly increases the likelihood of a move toward $116,000. ## Market Context and Price Behavior
From a broader market perspective, the recent rejection at the channel high and the subsequent retreat toward the low are typical occurrences in a defined price channel. Evidence of buyers defending the $104,300 level is apparent, indicated by a robust bullish candle that has emerged at this support mark.
This impulsive bounce suggests a shift in sentiment may be underway. Effectively, Bitcoin is trading again within its established bullish channel, implying that the recent breakout may have been an overextension, with the current retest acting as a necessary reset before further upward momentum.
Volume Trends and Future Expectations
Volume plays a critical role in gauging market sentiment. While the trading volume surged during the recent decline, it has remained elevated during the defense of the $104,300 support level, indicating that demand persists at this price point. Sustained buying pressure here could set the stage for the next upward movement.
Looking ahead, as long as Bitcoin stays above $104,300 and maintains its position above the 200-day moving average, the bullish market structure is expected to remain intact. A successful reclaiming of the price channel alongside a breakout from trendline resistance would signal the commencement of the next bullish phase, possibly leading to a price rotation toward the previous all-time high of $111,900 and ultimately toward a new target of $116,000. ## Conclusion
Bitcoin’s technical analysis reveals an optimistic outlook for the cryptocurrency, as long as it upholds critical support levels and navigates current price action correctly. Investors and market participants will be keenly watching these key levels as Bitcoin’s potential recovery and the progression of this crypto bull run unfold.