Bitcoin’s Bull Trend Remains Intact as Analysts Eye Key Triggers for Price Breakout
June 26, 2025 — Bitcoin’s recent price rally, which saw a remarkable 50% increase from lows below $74,000 in April to climb near $112,000, is showing signs of cooling off. However, cryptocurrency analysts remain optimistic that the flagship digital asset retains its bullish momentum and is poised for further upward movement in 2025. The question on many traders’ minds is what factors will trigger Bitcoin (BTC) to break past the crucial resistance level and enter price discovery.
MVRV Momentum Signals Late-Stage Bull Cycle
Following recent geopolitical developments, including the de-escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict, Bitcoin rebounded strongly. It reclaimed its 50-day simple moving average (SMA), currently positioned around $106,000. Despite this, the momentum of Bitcoin’s market value to realized value ratio (MVRV) has slowed down, according to onchain analytics from CryptoQuant.
Yonsei_dent, a CryptoQuant analyst, explained that the current lull in MVRV momentum does not herald an imminent downtrend. Instead, it may indicate the transition into the later phase of the ongoing bull cycle. With the present MVRV slope at 2.22—significantly below the overvalued zone generally above 3.7—there is room for further growth. A resurgence in MVRV momentum would imply investors are holding their positions longer, which would reduce selling pressure. Alongside strong inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), this could propel BTC beyond its current peak near $112,000, with some analysts forecasting potential rallies above $165,000. Onchain and Spot Trading Volumes Show Cooling Trend
Despite the bullish narrative, market activity metrics suggest a period of consolidation. Bitcoin’s onchain transfer volume has declined notably, with the seven-day moving average dropping approximately 32% from late May’s peak of about $76 billion to near $52 billion. Similarly, spot trading volumes linger at around $7.7 billion—significantly lower than previous cyclical highs witnessed during the bull market.
Glassnode’s recent Week Onchain report highlighted that unlike the earlier all-time high rallies in the second and fourth quarters of 2024, Bitcoin’s push to $111,000 was not accompanied by a surge in spot trading volume. This divergence signals diminished investor engagement and speculative intensity at the current price levels. Historical patterns show that robust spot volume increases often precede significant price breakouts, signaling strong investor conviction.
Crypto market insights provider Alva emphasized, “A real breakout for BTC needs more than just hype. A high-volume push above $107,500 is the first technical trigger to light the fuse.” Glassnode further concluded that while the general bull trend remains intact, a revival in demand, heightened trading activity, and improved onchain metrics are necessary to sustain momentum toward new all-time highs.
Key Resistance Range Between $108,000 and $110,000 Holds the Key
At present, Bitcoin’s price continues to oscillate between support near $100,000 and resistance clustered in the $108,000 to $110,000 range. For BTC to confirm a breakout and resume its upward trajectory, analysts agree it must decisively flip this resistance zone into a new support level.
Popular Bitcoin analyst AlphaBTC posted on X (formerly Twitter) that overcoming the $108,000 to $110,000 threshold will require significant buying effort. His technical analysis suggests that a pullback to around $104,000-$105,000 could serve to collect liquidity and build momentum for a subsequent upward move. He forecast that “a break and a four-hour close above $109,000” would pave the way for new all-time highs.
Rekt Capital, another prominent analyst, noted that Bitcoin bulls must conquer this final major weekly resistance above $108,000 to open the path to record price levels. Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Capital, echoed similar views stating, “$109,000 is the area that we need to break in order to have upward momentum,” and signaled that a breakout is imminent.
According to Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView data, the $108,000-$110,000 segment has attracted considerable liquidity, making it a focus point for traders aiming to trigger a decisive rally.
Outlook: Bull Market Intact but Waiting for Confirmation
In summary, Bitcoin maintains a strong underlying bull trend supported by key technical and onchain fundamentals. Nonetheless, confirmation of a sustained breakout hinges on increased investor activity, especially higher spot trading volumes and improved MVRV momentum. Clearing the $108,000-$110,000 resistance zone convincingly will be critical to unlocking BTC’s path toward new highs, potentially above $165,000 as some predictions suggest.
Investors are advised to watch these indicators closely, remembering that despite the positive outlook, all trading and investment decisions carry risk and should be made on the basis of thorough research.
This article is based on market analysis and expert commentary as of June 26, 2025. It does not constitute investment advice. Please conduct your own due diligence before making any financial decisions.
© 2025 Cointelegraph. All rights reserved.