Bitcoin Bull Market May End After October, Analyst Warns
July 4, 2025
A prominent crypto analyst has cautioned that the current Bitcoin bull run could be nearing its end, potentially peaking within the next two to three months. The forecast comes amid ongoing debate about the relevance of traditional market cycles in an evolving cryptocurrency landscape.
Crypto analyst known as Rekt Capital shared his outlook in a recent video, suggesting that if Bitcoin’s price movement follows the historical pattern from the 2020 cycle, the market rally may culminate by October 2025. This timing coincides with approximately 550 days after the latest Bitcoin halving event in April 2024—an event that often signals shifts in market momentum.
“We have a very small sliver of time and price expansion left,” Rekt Capital stated, emphasizing reliance on established market principles rather than abandoning them for newer narratives. While many traders hope for a prolonged cycle extending into 2026, he argued that sidelining the time-tested halving cycle indicators can lead to misguided expectations. Instead, these metrics help provide structure amid the volatility.
Rekt Capital pointed out that some market participants are focusing on alternate factors, such as Bitcoin’s correlation with the global M2 money supply, to justify forecasts of continued price surges. For example, another analyst, Crypto Auris, recently predicted that if global money supply keeps expanding, Bitcoin’s next target could approach $170,000. As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading near $109,155, a modest 2.5% below its all-time high of $111,970, according to CoinMarketCap data. Over the past month, Bitcoin has gained approximately 3.5%.
However, not all analysts agree with the traditional timeframes. Some experts believe that increased institutional adoption has altered Bitcoin’s cycle dynamics, making previous halving-based patterns less predictive. Geoff Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, noted that due to rising investor flows, Bitcoin may have moved beyond the previous trend of prices declining roughly 18 months after a halving event.
Reflecting this sentiment, in May 2025, Standard Chartered forecasted Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of the year—a target also shared by wealth management firm Bernstein. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes remains more bullish, targeting $250,000 by year-end.
Rekt Capital warned that chasing new metrics and narratives tends to be an emotional response that can cloud judgment. He urged traders and investors to remain grounded in reliable, historically validated indicators rather than impulsively following every new theory.
While the debate continues, all market participants are reminded that cryptocurrency investments carry risks, and decisions should be made based on thorough personal research.
This article is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.
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