Gold Prices Surge as Trump Escalates Tariff War: Expert Analysis on MCX Gold Levels and Investment Advice
By Nishant Kumar | Updated: July 11, 2025, 09:36 AM IST
Gold prices witnessed a significant uptick on Friday morning in the domestic futures market, driven by rising concerns over the intensifying global tariff war initiated by US President Donald Trump. This surge reflects investors’ cautious sentiment amid fears that escalating trade tensions could hamper global economic growth and push inflation higher.
Trump’s Tariff Measures Stoke Market Volatility
On July 11, 2025, Donald Trump announced a new tariff imposing a 35% duty on goods imported from Canada, effective from August 1. This move further complicates the already strained global trade environment, which has been roiled by a series of tariff hikes and retaliations primarily between the United States, China, and other trading partners.
The increased uncertainty has caused investors to seek refuge in traditional safe-haven assets such as gold and silver. However, despite the bullish momentum, gains in gold prices were partly tempered by a strengthening US dollar. The dollar index rose by 0.2%, reaching an intraday high of 97.88, making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies and potentially dampening broader demand.
MCX Gold and Silver Price Movements
On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), August gold contracts traded 0.58% higher, reaching ₹97,250 per 10 grams at around 9:10 AM IST. Silver prices also surged, with MCX Silver nearly hitting a fresh peak at ₹1,10,559 per kilogram. The previous trading session concluded with MCX Gold closing 0.24% higher at ₹96,690 per 10 grams.
India’s ongoing trade talks with the US have added another layer of attention, with Indian negotiators scheduled to visit the United States shortly to discuss a potential bilateral trade agreement aimed at easing tensions and fostering economic cooperation.
Expert Insights and Key Trading Levels
Aksha Kamboj, Vice President of the India Bullion and Jewellers Association and Executive Chairperson of Aspect Global Ventures, noted, "Renewed tariff threats from President Trump have pushed gold prices higher for a second consecutive day, increasing global trade uncertainty. Moreover, Trump’s hint of a ‘major statement’ on Russia expected Monday has contributed to market apprehension. While gold attracts safe-haven demand, its upside remains capped by a robust US dollar."
Looking ahead, experts underscore the importance of upcoming inflation data from the US and speculation around Federal Reserve interest rate policies as critical factors influencing gold prices.
Manoj Kumar Jain from Prithvifinmart Commodity Research recommends bullish positions on gold and silver within MCX trading parameters. He suggests purchasing gold if prices surpass ₹96,600 with a stop loss at ₹96,280 and a target of ₹97,200. For silver, he advises buying near ₹1,09,000 with a stop loss of ₹1,08,200 targeting ₹1,11,000. Jain outlines technical levels as follows:
- Gold support at ₹96,300–96,000 and resistance at ₹97,000–97,440.
- Silver support at ₹1,08,000–1,07,200 and resistance at ₹1,10,200–1,11,000. Internationally, he notes gold support at $3,300–3,280 and resistance at $3,360–3,374 per troy ounce, while silver support lies between $37.00–36.63 and resistance at $37.55–37.80 per troy ounce.
Rahul Kalantri, Vice President of Commodities at Mehta Equities, also highlights similar ranges:
- Gold support at $3,315–3,295 and resistance at $3,355–3,370; in INR terms support at ₹96,390–96,080 and resistance at ₹97,110–97,380.
- Silver support at $36.85–36.60 and resistance at $37.40–37.55; in INR support at ₹1,08,480–1,07,550 and resistance at ₹1,09,950–1,10,700. Should You Buy Gold Now?
The consensus among market analysts is that with escalating geopolitical risks and tariff-related uncertainties, gold presents a compelling investment opportunity as a hedge against economic and market volatility. However, potential investors should watch for key technical levels and remain vigilant regarding any shifts in US dollar movement or Federal Reserve policy signals that could influence prices.
Investors are advised to exercise caution and consider expert consultation before making decisions, given how rapidly market conditions can shift in the current uncertain global environment.
Disclaimer: This article is intended for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investment decisions should be based on personal research and consultation with certified financial advisors.
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