EUR/USD Faces Increasing Risk of Breaking Key Support Level at 1.1660, Says UOB Group
The euro (EUR) is showing signs of weakening against the US dollar (USD), with the risk of breaching a major support level at 1.1660 growing, according to foreign exchange analysts from UOB Group. This potential breakdown could signal further downside for the currency pair in the near term, analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia noted in a recent market assessment.
Current Market Dynamics
The EUR/USD pair experienced mixed movement over recent sessions. Earlier this week, the euro briefly climbed to a high near 1.1749 before sharply dropping to about 1.1661, just above the critical support threshold. Although it managed a quick rebound, market momentum appears to be shifting toward the downside.
As of the latest observations, the pair closed at approximately 1.1700 in New York trading, marking a modest decline of 0.16%. However, pressure on the euro increased in early Asian trading, intensifying the threat that the 1.1660 support level could be definitively broken.
Analyst Insights: Short- to Medium-Term Outlook
UOB’s 24-hour view indicates that unless the EUR/USD pair manages to breach a minor resistance near 1.1700 and a more significant resistance at 1.1720, the vulnerability to further declines remains intact. Should the pair close below 1.1660, it could pave the way for a move toward the next key support level at 1.1625, although UOB analysts suggest that reaching this level might not be immediate.
Over a medium-term horizon of one to three weeks, the outlook remains cautious but not yet bearish. The analysts highlighted that the EUR/USD’s “strong resistance” level currently sits at 1.1780. As long as the pair remains below this resistance and closes under 1.1660, downward risks are expected to dominate the market sentiment. Breaching above 1.1755, close to the resistance zone, however, would mitigate the threat of a decline and indicate a fading downward momentum.
Broader Market Context
The euro’s weakness comes amid a backdrop of ongoing trade uncertainties between the European Union and the United States, as well as a continuing preference among investors for the safe-haven US dollar. These factors contribute to the euro’s struggle to sustain gains. Additionally, the risk environment in global markets has dampened demand for EUR/USD, amplifying the downside risk.
Conclusion and Expectations
Traders and investors monitoring the EUR/USD pair should watch closely for price action around the 1.1660 support level, as its breach could signal a notable shift in market positioning toward further euro depreciation. While the immediate target for declines is 1.1625, cautiousness remains warranted given the proximity of strong resistance levels that could limit downside movement.
As always, market participants are advised to conduct thorough analysis and consider their risk appetite before making trading decisions. The forex market’s inherent volatility and uncertainty underscore the need for careful strategy and adherence to risk management principles.
Disclaimer: This analysis is based on market information available as of July 11, 2025, and does not constitute investment advice. Forex trading carries significant risks, including the potential loss of principal. Traders should perform their own due diligence and consult professional advisors if needed.