Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin Investment Strategy Faces Risk of Removal From Major Stock Indexes
Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin investment vehicle, Strategy Inc., is confronting a significant challenge as it faces the possibility of being dropped from major stock market benchmarks—including the MSCI USA and the Nasdaq 100 indexes. This potential exclusion threatens to undermine one of the key avenues through which institutional investors have accessed regulated Bitcoin exposure.
Implications of Index Removal
According to a recent analysis by JPMorgan, as reported by Bloomberg, the removal of Strategy Inc. from these prominent indexes could lead to substantial capital outflows. JPMorgan estimates that MSCI’s removal alone may trigger approximately $2.8 billion in fund withdrawals, with total outflows potentially larger if other index providers follow suit. At present, passive funds connected to Strategy account for close to $9 billion in market exposure. The final decision regarding the company’s index inclusion is expected by January 15, 2026. Such an exclusion could inflict damage beyond reduced trading volumes. It would detract from the institutional credibility and investor confidence that bolstered Strategy’s reputation as a popular means for fund managers to gain regulated Bitcoin exposure within traditional equity portfolios.
Changing Index Rules Underlying the Risk
Index provider MSCI announced changes to its index inclusion criteria in October 2025, targeting companies whose digital asset holdings constitute a majority share of their total assets. Specifically, MSCI proposed excluding firms whose digital asset treasuries represent 50% or more of their asset base, deeming them closer to investment funds—which are generally ineligible for these benchmarks. A spokesperson for MSCI declined to speculate on future index changes but acknowledged the ongoing consultation.
Strategy Inc. is particularly vulnerable to this rule adjustment; Bitcoin holdings dominate its assets, reflecting the company’s business model of wrapping Bitcoin exposure within an equity ticker. This model initially generated significant investor enthusiasm, driving Strategy’s market value to levels well above its actual Bitcoin holdings’ worth. However, that premium has since dissipated, and Strategy’s current valuation now hovers only slightly above the value of its crypto reserves, signaling weakening investor conviction.
Market Performance and Bitcoin Slide
Since reaching an all-time high in November 2024, Strategy’s share price has plummeted by more than 60%. Despite this steep decline, the shares remain up over 1,300% since Saylor disclosed the company’s Bitcoin purchases in August 2020, outperforming major equity indexes during the same period.
Broader crypto market trends add further pressure, with Bitcoin prices down more than 30% from their October 2025 peak and overall crypto market capitalization falling by over $1 trillion. Strategy’s market NAV (mNAV), which measures enterprise value relative to Bitcoin holdings, has fallen to just above 1.1. This ratio indicates the stock trades only marginally above the value of its underlying coins, reflecting that the feedback loop rewarding Bitcoin buys with share price appreciation is no longer as effective.
Continued Bitcoin Accumulation Despite Headwinds
Despite these challenges, Michael Saylor and the Strategy management team persist with aggressive Bitcoin accumulation. Earlier this week, Strategy spent $835.6 million to purchase 8,178 Bitcoin at an average price of $102,171 per coin, increasing total holdings to 649,870 bitcoins as of mid-November 2025. The total purchase cost for these coins is approximately $48.37 billion, with an average acquisition price of $74,433 per Bitcoin.
Looking Ahead
Investors and market observers are now awaiting the official decisions from index providers and monitoring how capital markets will respond as crypto market dynamics evolve. The potential removal from major stock indexes poses a formidable obstacle to Strategy’s approach of providing regulated Bitcoin exposure through public equity, raising important questions about the sustainability of this investment model amid changing regulatory and market conditions.
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