Historic BTC Drop Could Break Cycle and Trigger Explosive Rally, Experts Say
By Pedro Augusto | Verified by Anderson Mendes
Published November 21, 2025 | CryptoNews Brasil
Bitcoin’s recent historic price decline to around $82,000 has stirred anxiety among investors, with the fear and greed index plummeting to 11—one of the worst readings of the year. However, leading market experts are beginning to interpret this sharp pullback from a different perspective, seeing potential for a significant market transformation.
Jeff Park, partner and investment director at ProCap BTC, shared his insights during a recent discussion with industry influencer Anthony Pompliano. According to Park, the current downturn might actually represent a positive developmental stage for Bitcoin’s future, signaling a shift in how the market evaluates the cryptocurrency.
Breaking Free from the Four-Year Halving Cycle
Traditionally, Bitcoin’s price movements have been closely tied to the four-year halving cycle, a well-documented event that reduces the supply of new coins and historically has driven price rallies. Park argues, however, that this four-year cycle is losing its foothold because market dynamics have evolved beyond halving-based behavioral patterns.
“In recent years, new demand sources, particularly institutional investors, have significantly influenced Bitcoin’s price,” Park noted. This influx of institutional capital has gradually altered Bitcoin’s historic rhythm and may ultimately phase out the traditional halving cycle in favor of one aligned with institutional risk appetite.
Despite this changing landscape, Park acknowledges that psychological attachment to the halving cycle remains strong, rooted in the behavior of many long-time investors. Notably, major holders—wallets with over 10,000 BTC—account for about a third of Bitcoin’s liquid supply, reinforcing the cycle’s continued influence in market sentiment.
A Healthy Disruption to the Status Quo
Park suggests that the recent price dip could catalyze a healthy break from this entrenched cycle. Bitcoin’s performance currently sits below its cumulative annual price level. If Bitcoin ends the year in the red—a rare occurrence—it would mark a historic turning point, effectively “breaking the cycle” by preventing the usual mathematical repetition that drives halving-based forecasts.
This break could usher in a new market phase, less reliant on outdated patterns and more reflective of actual capital flows and investor behavior.
Looking Ahead to 2026 and Beyond
Park envisions two possible outcomes for Bitcoin by year-end. Closing near $98,000 to $100,000 would reinforce the “green year” narrative, maintaining pressure for a subsequent downturn in 2026 within the old cycle framework. Conversely, a negative close could pave the way for a new narrative regime, one less constrained by halving expectations.
When Pompliano asked whether Bitcoin might still surge past $140,000, Park remained open to the possibility but stressed such a move would require a strong, sustained rally consolidating 2025 as an extremely positive year. More likely, a moderate correction followed by price stabilization would better serve to “erase the fixed idea of the four-year cycle.”
Park concludes that Bitcoin trading at $85,000 is “good news” insofar as it enhances the odds of the market freeing itself from a calendar that no longer fully reflects Bitcoin’s evolving reality.
Why This Matters
For over a decade, CryptoNews Brasil has delivered in-depth coverage and expert analysis on the cryptocurrency market. This evolving perspective on Bitcoin’s cycles highlights the market’s maturation, particularly the growing impact of institutional investment. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for investors aiming to navigate the next phase of Bitcoin’s development.
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