Global Weekly Economic Update: Mixed Signals in the US Economy and Uncertainty Abroad
Week of November 24, 2025 | Deloitte Global Economics Research Center
Deloitte Insights continues to deliver in-depth analysis of global economic trends, helping organizations navigate complex economic environments. This week’s update, prepared by Deloitte’s Chief Global Economist Ira Kalish, highlights a spectrum of developments across key economies, focusing on the United States, Japan, and the broader global context.
Mixed Employment Report for the United States
The United States employment report for September, released after delays caused by a government shutdown, paints a nuanced picture of the labor market. The report comprises data from two key surveys: the establishment survey and the household survey, each offering unique insights.
Establishment Survey Findings
The establishment survey revealed an increase of 119,000 payroll jobs in September — a figure that exceeded many analyst predictions and rebuffed the ADP private sector survey’s forecast of employment decline. However, this positive headline masks some underlying weakness, as payroll numbers for May, June, and August were downwardly revised, revealing modest job gains over the past four months overall.
Notably, the employment growth was not broad-based. Gains came almost exclusively from the health care and social assistance sectors, food services, and state and local government jobs—together accounting for 99.7% of all new employment. Conversely, several significant sectors experienced job losses or minimal gains, including mining, manufacturing, trade, transportation and warehousing, and professional and business services. Employment in information and financial services sectors showed little growth.
Wages increased by 3.8% year-over-year in September, a steady rate sustained over six months. Rising wages outpacing inflation suggest maintained purchasing power, though the lack of acceleration in wage growth points to a labor market that is not fueling inflationary pressures. However, with the possibility of tariff-driven inflation increasing in 2026, any continued wage stagnation could erode consumer purchasing power and dampen spending.
Household Survey Insights
The household survey, which also captures self-employment, showed a faster expansion of the labor force than the working-age population, as many individuals returned to job-seeking. Labor force participation accordingly rose slightly. Despite this, employment gains did not keep pace, resulting in an increase in the unemployment rate from 4.3% in August to 4.4% in September — the highest since 2021. —
Implications for Federal Reserve Policy
The mixed labor market data adds complexity to the Federal Reserve’s policy landscape. While interest rates have been cut earlier in 2025, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s recent statements indicate a cautious approach to further reductions in light of the economy’s underlying strength and persistent inflationary risks. Most market observers anticipate slow, gradual rate cuts in the coming year.
The latest employment figures, blending positives and negatives, are unlikely to drastically influence upcoming Fed meetings. Crucially, inflation data expected after the next meeting, as well as combined employment data for October and November released post-meeting in December, will provide a clearer directional signal.
Broader Economic Signals: Consumer Sentiment and Business Activity
The US economy continues to send mixed messages beyond employment. The Conference Board’s latest consumer confidence index recorded a sharp 4.9% decline in November, reaching the second lowest level on record, trailing only the pandemic-era lows of 2022. Consumers cited ongoing frustration with high prices and stagnant incomes.
Despite pervasive consumer pessimism, expectations of inflation in the next 12 months have moderated to 4.5%, down from a peak of 6.5% earlier this year linked to tariff fears.
In contrast, preliminary (flash) purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs) from S&P Global offer a more optimistic outlook. These forward-looking indicators, which surpass the key 50 threshold to indicate expanding manufacturing and services activity, suggest ongoing economic momentum driven by factors such as new orders, output, and employment intentions.
Japan: Facing a Challenge of Slower Growth and Policymaking Uncertainty
Turning to Asia, Japan grapples with weaker economic growth amidst rising inflation. The environment of uncertainty around monetary policy continues as policymakers balance inflation control with growth support. In response, new fiscal stimulus measures are being implemented, aiming to reinvigorate economic expansion while managing inflationary risks.
Global Economic Outlook
This week’s update underscores the complexity facing economies worldwide — from mixed employment data and consumer caution in the US to monetary and fiscal challenges in Japan. Deloitte’s comprehensive research center network monitors these evolving conditions closely, providing data-driven insights to help leaders turn aspirations into effective action in an increasingly boundaryless and disrupted global economic landscape.
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Report prepared by Ira Kalish, Chief Global Economist, Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Ltd.
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