EUR/USD Analysis: Edges Lower Ahead of US Jobs Data – December 9, 2025
As the US prepares to release critical employment figures, the EUR/USD currency pair has experienced a slight dip, edging lower amid cautious market sentiment. Traders and investors are closely watching the developments ahead of the US jobs data, which is expected to influence the near-term trajectory of this widely traded currency pair.
Current Market Overview
The EUR/USD pair is currently consolidating within an ascending channel, trading around the 1.1653 mark after pulling back from recent resistance near the psychologically significant 1.1700 level. This retreat suggests a testing phase where support at the channel’s lower boundary is being evaluated by the market.
Technical indicators also offer a mixed but cautiously optimistic outlook. The 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) remains positioned above the 200-day SMA, a classic indicator that implies the overall trend retains upward momentum. Both SMAs, sloping upwards and lying below the current price, serve as dynamic support levels should further pullbacks occur. Furthermore, momentum oscillators present signals favorable to buyers— the Stochastic oscillator is climbing from oversold territory, indicating renewed buying interest, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is improving from lower levels, signaling underlying strength in the pair.
Fibonacci extension levels provide a roadmap for potential price targets if bullish momentum continues. Key resistance levels identified include:
- 0.382 extension at 1.1678
- 0.5 extension at 1.1693
- 0.618 extension at 1.1708
- 0.764 extension at 1.1727
- 1.0 extension at 1.1757 (ultimate target if momentum accelerates)
Support and Resistance Levels Today
- Support: 1.1590, 1.1520, 1.1470
- Resistance: 1.1680, 1.1760, 1.1820
Trading Signals
- Buy: Enter near support at 1.1555 with a target of 1.1800; stop-loss at 1.1490
- Sell: Enter near resistance at 1.1730 with a target of 1.1500; stop-loss at 1.1800
Influencing Factors
Market participants are closely anticipating this week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement, with expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. However, the tone of the policy guidance may tilt towards caution, especially concerning future rate neutrality in 2026. Hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell could strengthen the US Dollar, adding downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair. It is noteworthy that Powell’s term is approaching its conclusion, injecting additional uncertainty regarding the Fed’s forward messaging.
Earlier today, the Eurozone dollar was influenced by the release of German trade balance figures and commentary from European Central Bank (ECB) officials. ECB board member Isabel Schnabel indicated comfort with market expectations of a possible interest rate hike by the ECB, citing upside risks to growth and inflation. Her remarks also suggested revisions to December’s economic projections, reinforcing hopes that the ECB might hold rates steady through 2026 due to resilient economic data and inflation nearing target levels.
Market Outlook and Trading Advice
Considering the technical indicators and upcoming fundamental triggers, the EUR/USD pair is expected to trade with limited directional conviction until the US Federal Reserve releases its policy statement. Traders are advised to exercise caution and avoid premature decisions ahead of this event.
Market participants should monitor key support and resistance levels and be prepared for increased volatility surrounding the jobs data release. The current consolidation phase is likely to persist, with breakout directions heavily dependent on employment figures and Fed commentary.
About the Analyst
Mahmoud Abdallah is a seasoned forex analyst with over 12 years of full-time experience in the foreign exchange markets. He is widely recognized for his insightful articles, technical analyses, and reliable trading signals, especially within Arabic-speaking trading communities. Mahmoud dedicates extensive hours daily to market analysis, aiming to simplify forex trading concepts for his audience.
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