Japanese Yen Technical Outlook: USD/JPY, CHF/JPY, AUD/JPY
By Matt Simpson, Market Analyst
December 11, 2025
The Japanese yen continues to exhibit weakness across major currency pairs, with key yen crosses such as USD/JPY, CHF/JPY, and AUD/JPY maintaining their broader upward trends into mid-December. Despite some short-term pullbacks, the overall technical outlook remains constructive, supported by favorable seasonality patterns and steady demand for higher-yielding currencies. Traders are advised to stay alert as many pairs approach significant resistance levels, which could lead to increased market volatility.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis
The USD/JPY pair experienced a brief pullback, marking a second consecutive session of declines against the yen. However, a late recovery on Thursday resulted in a bullish hammer formation on the daily chart, reinforcing a positive near-term bias. Notably, the pair found support at the 155 level, a point previously identified for potential Ministry of Finance (MOF) intervention. This strong support level strengthens the bullish case moving forward.
Intraday analysis on the 1-hour chart reveals increased volume during the decline, followed by a small bullish candle forming at the session low with the highest volume of the day. This suggests a sentiment shift favoring buyers around this intraday low, aligning with the daily chart’s bullish hammer wick.
Looking ahead, bulls may seek to capitalize on dips within Thursday’s trading range ahead of a potential breakout above the 156 resistance level. However, seasonal patterns tend to favor US dollar weakness during the latter half of December, signaling a need for nimble trading strategies.
CHF/JPY Technical Analysis
The Swiss franc continues its relentless ascent against the Japanese yen, with CHF/JPY pressing toward record highs. The pair is on track for a fourth consecutive daily gain, supported by December seasonality that heavily favors upside movement. These dynamics make any dips potentially attractive buying opportunities as the pair advances toward the 200 level.
While it remains uncertain if CHF/JPY will reach the 200 mark by month-end, historical December performances suggest that the pair has a reasonable chance to attempt this level, buoyed by strong momentum and seasonal tailwinds.
AUD/JPY Technical Analysis
Similar to other yen crosses, AUD/JPY generally performs well in December but has encountered resistance just below the 2008 high, causing a short-term pullback. The current technical setup suggests the possibility of further downside before the bulls can push prices higher again, unless an unexpected risk-off event interrupts the seasonal trend.
On the 1-hour chart, a double top has formed near 103.78, which had previously acted as support. This is accompanied by declining volume into Thursday’s high, indicating a loss of upward momentum. Bulls may look for buying opportunities on dips within Thursday’s range, provided prices hold above the double-bottom lows around the 103.17 volume node, with the aim to break back above 103.8. Traders should also watch for a deeper retracement potentially taking the pair toward 102.85 or even 102.50 before the broader uptrend resumes.
Conclusion
The Japanese yen’s continuing weakness is clear across the USD/JPY, CHF/JPY, and AUD/JPY pairs, each demonstrating resilience despite short-term corrections. Seasonality remains a significant factor supporting the broader uptrends, with key technical levels serving as pivotal points for possible volatility. Market participants should maintain flexibility and monitor price actions closely, as well as fundamental developments, to navigate the evolving landscape effectively through the rest of December.
— Written by Matt Simpson
Data sources: LSEG, TradingView
Follow Matt on Twitter: @cLeverEdge
Disclaimer: The information provided herein is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Forex and leveraged trading carry significant risks and may not be suitable for all investors. Please consider your financial situation and risk tolerance before engaging in trading activities.