The Perilous Threat to Our Coffee Supply: Climate Change and Market Volatility Spark Serious Concerns
By Adam McGroarty, Sky News Money Reporter
Saturday 13 December 2025, 07:50 UK Time
The global coffee industry is facing an alarming crisis that experts describe as a "genuine risk" to the future availability of coffee. As prices continue to surge and supply becomes increasingly unstable, specialists and producers warn that the decades-long impact of climate change combined with market volatility may jeopardize coffee as a staple commodity.
Steep Price Increases Reflect Supply Challenges
In 2024 and continuing into this year, raw arabica coffee bean prices have skyrocketed—rising over 70% last year and jumping another 20% so far in 2025. This price inflation has been driven largely by harsh weather conditions devastating key coffee-producing regions. Brazil, the world’s top coffee grower, experienced another poor crop following severe summer droughts, while Vietnam, the second-largest supplier, saw production fall by 20% due to drought, according to an industry report by Bernstein.
These disruptions have created significant market volatility, pushing coffee among five essential staples responsible for roughly 40% of food inflation over the past year, per the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit.
Voices from the Frontlines of Coffee Production
Silvia Herrera, a second-generation coffee producer in Mexico with over a decade of experience, described the market situation as "crazy and impossible to manage," with intra-day price swings reaching as much as 40 cents per pound. She cited erratic rainfall patterns destroying nearly half of her highest-quality coffee crops last year—a direct consequence of climate change.
Herrera stressed that rising coffee prices do not translate into better earnings for farmers. "We receive just 3% of the retail price of a cup of coffee," she explained, emphasizing the industry’s imbalance. She credited Fairtrade’s minimum price guarantee with giving producers some stability amid these turbulent conditions, calling it the "only reason we are able to keep producing."
The Climate and Market Threat: A Ticking Time Bomb
Max Milward, sustainability specialist and coffee sourcing manager at the Fairtrade Foundation, highlighted the long-term implications of ongoing supply challenges. While current high prices are extraordinary, market inconsistency and volatility are the norm, posing severe difficulties for producers who operate in countries where less than 10% of the $200 billion global industry’s value remains after production costs.
Milward described alarming trends observed at a coffee cooperative in Honduras, where farmers are forced to relocate higher up mountainous terrain in search of cooler climates free from pests and diseases. However, he warned, "Within 10 years, there may be nowhere left to grow."
Citing a Climate Institute report, Milward noted that by 2050, coffee production could be cut in half, with roughly 50% of existing coffee-growing land becoming unsuitable within 25 years due to climate impacts. This stark prognosis underscores the "perilous" future of coffee without urgent investment and climate adaptation measures.
Industry Response and a Cautious Optimism
On the manufacturing side, roasters like James Sweeting and Simon Herring, who have been hand-roasting coffee since 1994, described adapting to the financial pressures caused by price fluctuations as critical. Their company maintains higher stock levels and relies on strong banking relationships to manage cash flow amid uncertainty.
Sweeting indicated that prices might remain elevated through mid-2026 but remains hopeful that a good Brazilian crop could ease supply constraints and stabilize prices. Despite challenges, he observed that coffee consumption continues to hold steady as it remains an affordable indulgence for many consumers.
Looking Ahead: Can Coffee Survive?
The global coffee supply chain is grappling with unprecedented challenges brought on by climate change and market forces. From producers struggling with unpredictable weather and poor yields to volatile global markets and rising consumer prices, the peril to coffee is real and immediate.
Without sustained investment in sustainable farming practices, climate resilience, and fair trade mechanisms, experts like Max Milward warn that coffee—one of the world’s most beloved beverages—could become scarce in the not-too-distant future.
For coffee lovers worldwide, the coming years will be crucial to ensuring that future generations can still enjoy their morning cup.