Goldman Sachs Predicts Record Gold Prices and Weak Oil Market in 2026 Commodity Outlook
December 19, 2025 — Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has issued its latest outlook on key commodities for 2026, highlighting a continued surge in gold prices alongside persistent challenges in the crude oil market. According to a recent note from analysts Daan Struyven and Samantha Dart, both trends that have defined commodities markets in 2025 are expected to extend into the coming year.
Gold to Reach New All-Time Highs
Gold has enjoyed a remarkable rally this year, buoyed by factors such as robust central bank purchases, anticipated interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, and strong inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Goldman Sachs forecasts that these drivers will persist, with gold prices potentially climbing to a new record high of $4,900 an ounce in 2026, surpassing current levels near $4,323 an ounce.
"Falling US interest rates have led ETF investors to start competing for limited bullion alongside central banks," the analysts noted. This structural demand, combined with supportive monetary policy, is seen as a powerful catalyst for further gains in bullion markets.
Oil Market Faces Surplus and Price Pressure
On the other hand, the oil sector is expected to face headwinds next year. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions—such as disruptions in Venezuela that have raised concerns about supply interruptions—Goldman projects an oversupplied global oil market in 2026. Unless there are significant supply disruptions or coordinated production cuts by OPEC, crude prices are likely to decline further.
The bank’s analysts anticipate that global crude benchmarks will soften, with Brent crude averaging around $56 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at approximately $52 per barrel. This comes amid expectations of increasing OECD commercial oil stockpiles as the market adjusts to surplus conditions.
Other Commodity Forecasts
Goldman Sachs also provided insights on various other commodities:
- Natural Gas: Prices are forecasted to fall due to an unprecedented wave of new supply entering the market.
- Copper: Expected to outperform aluminum, though the recent rally in copper prices may face headwinds as the price nears $11,000 per ton.
- Iron Ore: Anticipated weakness is likely as rising mine output contributes to an increase in supply.
Market Snapshot
As of the latest trading sessions:
- Copper trades at approximately $5.51 per pound, up 1.52%.
- Brent crude is priced near $60.47 per barrel, down 1.17%.
- Gold futures sit around $4,387 per ounce, rising 0.54%.
- Silver and platinum futures have also seen gains, with movements of over 3% in recent days.
The mixed outlook for commodities reflects broader economic trends, including central bank policies, geopolitical risks, and shifts in industrial demand.
Conclusion
Goldman Sachs’ 2026 commodity forecast underscores gold’s growing role as a safe haven amid economic uncertainty and monetary easing, while the oil market contends with oversupply pressures that may temper prices. Investors and market participants will be watching closely as these dynamics unfold in the year ahead.
Source: MINING.COM, Bloomberg News, December 19, 2025