Strategy Positions for Prolonged Crypto Winter After Boosting Cash Reserves, Says TD Cowen
December 22, 2025 – The Block
Strategy, the world’s largest bitcoin treasury company, has significantly strengthened its financial position in anticipation of enduring challenging market conditions, according to investment bank TD Cowen’s analysis. The company recently increased its U.S. dollar reserve to $2.19 billion after raising approximately $748 million through a common stock offering, bolstering its liquidity and financial flexibility.
Strengthening Liquidity Amidst Market Headwinds
Strategy (ticker: MSTR) announced Monday that its expanded cash reserve is substantial enough to cover interest and dividend obligations for about 32 months. This enhanced liquidity is expected to help the company navigate a “prolonged crypto winter,” a period of extended market downturn and low crypto asset prices.
In a Monday report, TD Cowen’s TD Securities unit, led by Lance Vitanza, highlighted that this fundraising underscores Strategy’s robust balance sheet and mitigates concerns regarding the company’s viability during sustained market stress. “Shoring up liquidity during times of stress is always prudent, in our view, and we believe all Strategy stakeholders are materially better off as a result of these actions,” the analysts noted.
Confident Outlook with Buy Rating Maintained
Despite Strategy’s shares trading near $165 — down over 43% on a year-to-date basis — TD Securities reiterated its buy rating on the stock, maintaining a $500 price target for the next 12 months. The firm cautioned that while the price target may seem ambitious given current market conditions, it factors in the company’s embedded leverage to bitcoin price movements as well as the volatility of both bitcoin and Strategy’s bitcoin premium.
“Given Strategy’s leverage to underlying bitcoin price activity combined with significant volatility in both bitcoin price and Strategy’s bitcoin premium, our price target represents a reasonable outcome in one year’s time,” the analysts added.
Recent Capital Raising Efforts
This latest capital raise follows Strategy’s initial disclosure on December 1, revealing it had secured $1.44 billion to create a liquid cash buffer supporting dividend payments on preferred stock and interest on outstanding debt. Over the past four weeks, Strategy sold more than 22 million shares, matching average daily trading volumes, without significantly affecting market liquidity.
TD Securities remarked that through these decisive financial maneuvers, Strategy has largely addressed any lingering doubts regarding its continued access to capital markets. “Concerns around the viability of Strategy’s balance sheet are overblown, in our opinion,” the analysts concluded.
Strategy’s Bitcoin Holdings and Future Projections
As of now, Strategy holds approximately 671,268 bitcoin, with a market value exceeding $59 billion, according to The Block’s Data Dashboard. TD Cowen forecasts that by the end of fiscal year 2027, Strategy could increase its bitcoin holdings to about 835,000 coins.
Looking ahead, the investment bank anticipates an intrinsic bitcoin value per share of roughly $380 within one year and $515 in two years, based on the company’s projected bitcoin accumulation and market dynamics.
Regulatory Developments Signal Potential ‘Crypto Spring’
The TD Cowen report also highlighted a recent request by the U.S. Federal Reserve for public feedback on a proposed “payment account” — sometimes called a “skinny master account.” This would potentially allow certain eligible institutions, including some crypto-related firms, limited access to Federal Reserve payment systems.
This regulatory initiative indicates growing acceptance of crypto firms within the mainstream financial system. “A ‘crypto spring’ looks at least as likely to us,” TD Securities wrote, signaling optimism that a more favorable regulatory environment could emerge.
The Block is an independent media outlet reporting on cryptocurrency news, data, and research. As of November 2023, Foresight Ventures is the majority investor in The Block but the outlet maintains editorial independence.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, tax, investment, or financial advice.
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