EUR/USD Price Forecast: Tests Nine-Day EMA Support Near 1.1750
December 29, 2025 – FXStreet
The EUR/USD currency pair is under the spotlight once again as it tests the critical support level at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.1750. After losing ground for the fourth consecutive trading session, the pair is currently trading around 1.1760 during Asian market hours on Monday, reflecting cautious sentiment among investors heading into the year-end.
Technical Overview
From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair shows signs of a weakening bullish momentum on the daily chart. The price is attempting to break below the lower boundary of the ascending channel pattern, which has been the trend corridor guiding the pair’s upward movement in recent weeks. Despite this retest of support, the pair remains above key moving averages that support the near-term uptrend.
Key indicators supporting this technical view include:
- Nine-day EMA: Currently at 1.1757, acting as an immediate dynamic support line and sitting just above the 50-day EMA.
- 50-day EMA: Positioned at 1.1673, providing a broader support level for the currency pair.
- 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI): Holding at 63.92, which is above the neutral 50 midline, indicating that buyers still have control despite a cooling off from recent overbought territory.
The moving average structure maintains a bullish bias as the faster nine-day EMA remains above the 50-day EMA. This arrangement suggests that, as long as EUR/USD stays above the nine-day EMA, the short-term uptrend could remain intact, providing traders with an indicator that the pair’s path of least resistance is upwards.
Key Price Levels to Watch
Traders and analysts are closely monitoring several critical levels that could determine the next directional move for EUR/USD:
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Upside Targets:
- Near-term psychological level at 1.1800, a significant threshold for market sentiment.
- The recent three-month high at 1.1808, last seen on December 24, representing a technical resistance area.
- If buyers gain momentum beyond these points, the pair could advance toward 1.1918, marking the highest level since June 2021.
- Further gains may challenge the upper boundary of the ascending channel near 1.1930.
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Downside Risks:
- Immediate support consolidates at the nine-day EMA (1.1757) and aligns with the ascending channel’s lower boundary.
- A decisive breakdown below this zone could weaken bullish momentum, prompting a revisit of the 50-day EMA at 1.1673.
- Should selling pressure intensify, EUR/USD may retest the three-week low of 1.1589 recorded on December 1. ### Currency Performance Snapshot
In today’s broader currency market movements, the Euro has displayed relative weakness against other major currencies, particularly the Australian Dollar, which has been the Euro’s strongest opponent based on percentage change. This mixed currency performance adds an element of uncertainty to the Euro’s near-term trajectory.
| Currency Pair | Percentage Change Today |
|---|---|
| EUR/AUD | -0.25% |
| EUR/USD | -0.12% |
| EUR/GBP | -0.04% |
| EUR/JPY | -0.22% |
Market Context
The EUR/USD’s price action unfolds amid generally subdued market trading ahead of the New Year holidays. Despite a broadly softer US Dollar, market participants remain cautious, contributing to the pair’s limited volatility and muted directional moves.
Moreover, technical analysts and traders await further cues from upcoming economic data such as US Pending Home Sales, in addition to monitoring central bank communications including the European Central Bank (ECB) and the US Federal Reserve (Fed), which could influence investor sentiment and currency flows.
Analyst: Akhtar Faruqui
Forex Analyst, FXStreet — New Delhi, India
Akhtar Faruqui specializes in analyzing Forex markets with a focus on identifying trends and interpreting technical signals to assist traders in making informed decisions.
Disclaimer: This report contains forward-looking statements based on current market data and technical analysis. It is meant for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. FX trading involves risk, and investors should conduct their own research before making trading decisions.