Will Your Tax Refund Be a ‘Hot Mess?’ Expert Shares What to Expect This Tax Season
Rochester, N.Y. — January 7, 2026 — As the 2026 tax filing season gets underway, many taxpayers are wondering what kind of refunds to expect this year. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has been making headlines recently, assuring the public that “very large refunds” are on the horizon thanks to the new One, Big, Beautiful Bill Act that was signed into law on July 4, 2025. This sweeping legislation introduced several tax changes, including no federal tax on Social Security benefits, overtime pay, and tips.
However, financial expert George Conboy, chairman of Brighton Securities, says the reality may be less straightforward. In a recent interview with 13WHAM, Conboy described the upcoming tax season as potentially “a hot mess,” cautioning taxpayers to manage their expectations.
What the One, Big, Beautiful Bill Means for Taxpayers
The new legislation includes some notable provisions aimed at easing tax burdens for many Americans:
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No federal tax on Social Security benefits for seniors, which translates roughly to an additional $6,000 in deductions per person aged 65 and older, or about $12,000 per couple, depending on your tax bracket.
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Increased property tax deduction limits in New York State, rising from $10,000 to $40,000. However, this new limit phases out for higher income earners, though most homeowners should benefit from being able to deduct their full property tax payments.
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No federal tax on tips with deductions available up to $25,000. – No federal tax on overtime pay, allowing for deductions up to $12,500. While these changes seem generous, the picture is complicated by the fact that state-level tax rules, such as those for New York, are still being hashed out in Albany. Some areas, like the tax treatment of tips, remain in legislative limbo.
Expert Highlights Complexity and Individual Variation
“There’s no way to put an actual dollar amount per taxpayer on what you can expect because every taxpayer’s circumstance is different,” Conboy explained.
He emphasized that while the tax law changes offer potential savings, how much an individual receives in a refund will vary widely depending on their unique financial situation, income level, and local tax regulations.
Mixed Public Reactions and Uncertainty
Rochester resident Christine Murray reflected widespread taxpayer uncertainty, saying, “First off, I think it’s going to be a big mess. I think it’s going to be a hot mess.” She and others voiced frustration over the lack of clear communication and understanding about how to navigate the new tax rules and what refunds to anticipate.
“We don’t have any explanations. I don’t know what’s happening. I don’t know how I’m getting paid back for the overtime that they took for half the year,” Murray shared.
Planning Ahead: Tips to Avoid Tax Season Surprises
Conboy recommends taxpayers monitor their withholding closely to avoid owing unexpected taxes or missing out on potential refunds in the future.
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If you owe taxes this year: Request your employer increase tax withholding to better cover your liability and avoid surprises during the next filing season.
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If you receive a large refund: Consider adjusting your withholding to have less tax withheld from each paycheck, allowing you to keep more money throughout the year rather than waiting for a lump sum refund.
“You’ll get back a lower refund, but you will have had the use of your money all year,” Conboy advised.
Looking Ahead
As the IRS and state tax authorities implement and clarify the new rules, taxpayers are encouraged to stay informed by following updates from official sources and consulting tax professionals for personalized guidance.
While the One, Big, Beautiful Bill promises significant tax relief for many, this tax season may be marked by uncertainty and complexity. Preparing ahead and understanding your individual situation could be key to navigating what some are calling a potentially “hot mess” refund season.
For more tax tips and updates, stay tuned to 13WHAM and consult with your trusted financial advisor.