Financial Market Update: Argentine Stocks and Bonds Rise for Fourth Consecutive Day as Country Risk Drops Sharply
January 23, 2026 – Buenos Aires
The Argentine financial markets continued their positive momentum on Friday, marking the fourth consecutive day of gains in both equities and sovereign bonds, while the country’s risk premium sharply declined to its lowest level since 2018. These developments suggest improving investor confidence and a more stable macroeconomic outlook for Argentina.
Stock Market Performance
The benchmark S&P Merval index of the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange rose by 0.9%, closing at 3,093,535 points. This sustained upswing reflects growing optimism among market participants. Among notable performers in the domestic market were Banco Francés, which surged 4.9%, Transener up 3.3%, and YPF with a 2.5% gain.
The positive trend in Argentina’s equities was mirrored by a mild uptick in global markets, including the Nasdaq composite in New York, which gained 0.3% amid ongoing corporate earnings season.
Bond Market and Risk Premium
Argentine sovereign bonds denominated in U.S. dollars increased on average by 0.7%, contributing to a significant drop in Argentina’s country risk, measured by the JP Morgan EMBI+ spread, down to 526 basis points. This represents the lowest risk level registered since June 2018, when the spread was approximately 503 basis points.
This decline signals an enhanced perception of Argentina’s creditworthiness among international investors, driven by increased financial stability and improved sovereign debt repayment prospects.
Ignacio Morales, Chief Investments Officer at Wise Capital, commented, "The fall in the risk indicator reflects improved risk perception amid greater financial stability and better expectations around sovereign debt servicing. Dollar-denominated sovereign bonds mostly advanced, particularly the Global bonds leading the gains."
Adcap Grupo Financiero anticipates further improvement, projecting a moderate compression of spreads toward 450 basis points by December 2026. This scenario implies potential price increases for benchmark bonds maturing in 2030 and 2035 of approximately 13% and 16%, respectively.
The reduction in risk premium could open the door for Argentina to issue new sovereign debt in the international markets later this year under more favorable terms.
Foreign Exchange Market Dynamics
After two sessions of declines, the U.S. dollar rebounded slightly in domestic markets, rising by 0.2% to close at 1,433 Argentine pesos on the wholesale market, according to data from ABC Mercado de Cambios. The Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) set the upper limit of its exchange rate band at 1,554.82 pesos per dollar, leaving the official exchange rate at about 8.5% below this ceiling.
On the retail front, the dollar sold by Banco Nación increased by 0.3%, closing at 1,455 pesos, while the informal or "blue" dollar fell by 0.7% to 1,485 pesos. The "blue" dollar price hovered near its lowest level since mid-December 2025. Market analysts suggest that the BCRA’s ongoing dollar purchases—USD 75 million acquired on Friday, totaling USD 978 million so far in January—along with a relaxation of currency controls, are supporting exchange rate stability amid increased demand for foreign reserves.
International Reserves and Gold Prices
Argentina’s gross international reserves rose by USD 162 million on the day, reaching USD 45.56 billion — the highest levels since September 2021. The increase was partly fueled by further gains in gold prices, which advanced 1.4% to a record USD 4,979.70 per ounce.
Market Outlook
Economist Gustavo Ber noted strong ongoing appetite for Argentine corporate bond issuances abroad, with provincial governments expected to follow suit soon, capitalizing on the favorable global financial environment.
He added, “The stability in the wholesale dollar rate is supported by the wave of corporate issuances, increased carry-trade interest in emerging markets, and the Central Bank’s purchase of reserves. Market participants hope this tranquility results in converging real interest rates that can ultimately benefit economic activity.”
The renewed investor confidence, coupled with improved fiscal and monetary policy signals, positions Argentina for possibly accessing international funding markets more comfortably during the remainder of 2026. —
For more financial news and detailed market analysis, visit Infobae’s Economy section.