Bitcoin Could Find Next Bottom Near $50,000 Based on Gold Ratio, Expert Warns
As Bitcoin (BTC) prices continue to show signs of weakness, drifting toward key support levels, market analysts are closely watching a critical ratio involving gold that may indicate the cryptocurrency’s next major bottom. Currently, Bitcoin is approaching the pivotal $82,000 mark—a level that could determine its near-term trajectory.
The Gold-to-Bitcoin Ratio: A Key Indicator
Cryptocurrency analyst Doctor Profit has highlighted the Gold-to-Bitcoin (GOLD/BTC) ratio as one of the most important charts for the current Bitcoin cycle. According to him, this ratio has historically provided reliable signals marking significant tops and bottoms in Bitcoin’s price movements.
Doctor Profit shared that roughly a year ago, he first pointed out a repeating pattern where Bitcoin would typically peak when 0.02 BTC equaled one ounce of gold, and find its bottom when the ratio reached approximately 0.11 BTC per ounce. This indicator successfully marked Bitcoin’s previous cycle high in 2021 and its bottom in 2022. Following this historical trend, Doctor Profit believes Bitcoin’s recent peak near $125,000 coincided with the gold-to-Bitcoin ratio hitting the 0.02 BTC per ounce threshold once again. This raises the crucial question of whether the market will follow through by touching the 0.11 BTC per ounce level—a marker that has historically indicated a market bottom.
Calculating Bitcoin’s Potential Bottom
Using current gold prices as a reference point, Doctor Profit’s calculation provides a possible target for Bitcoin’s next low. Assuming gold trades around $5,500 per ounce, applying the 0.11 BTC per ounce ratio projects a Bitcoin price near $50,000. This estimate is consistent with his broader expectation that Bitcoin’s cycle low could range between $50,000 and $60,000. Even if gold prices were to climb as high as $7,000 per ounce in a bullish scenario, the ratio would still imply a Bitcoin bottom near $63,000. In both cases, the analysis supports the notion that gold is poised to outperform Bitcoin in the next several months.
Alternative Perspectives on Bitcoin’s Near-Term Outlook
Not all analysts agree with this bearish outlook. Technical analyst Michael van de Poppe offers a contrasting view, suggesting Bitcoin may be nearing the end of its bear phase as gold’s recent strength shows signs of fading.
Van de Poppe points to Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) against gold on the weekly timeframe, presently at the lowest level ever recorded. This indicates an extreme valuation imbalance, with one asset potentially overextended and the other undervalued. He describes this situation as part of a “big rotation” in the market cycle, where investors might soon shift their focus back to Bitcoin.
Additionally, van de Poppe references Bitcoin’s Z-Score—a metric measuring how undervalued or overvalued BTC is relative to its realized capitalization, adjusted for volatility. He notes that the current Z-Score is even lower than during major historical bottoms, such as those in 2015, 2018, the 2020 COVID-19 crash, and the 2022 bear market low. This suggests Bitcoin is well into a bear market phase and may be approaching its final stage before recovery begins.
Current Market Snapshot
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading around $83,435, showing a 2.2% loss in the past 24 hours and a 7% decline over the last week. These movements underscore the volatile and uncertain environment facing BTC traders and investors.
Conclusion
The Gold-to-Bitcoin ratio continues to be a closely watched metric among crypto analysts, with Doctor Profit warning of a potential bottom near the $50,000 range. Meanwhile, opposing viewpoints like that of Michael van de Poppe suggest Bitcoin may be nearing a recovery phase. As Bitcoin approaches crucial support levels, market participants will be watching closely to see which scenario unfolds next.
Image credit: DALL-E | Chart source: TradingView.com