Average IRS Tax Refund Up 10.9% So Far This Season, Early Data Shows
As the 2026 tax season progresses, early data from the IRS indicates that the average tax refund issued to individual filers is up 10.9% compared to the same point last year. According to IRS figures released on February 13, 2026, the average refund amount stood at $2,290 as of February 6, up from $2,065 reported at around the same time in 2025. ### Key Figures from Early Filing Data
The total amount refunded by the IRS as of February 6 was more than $16.9 billion, marking a 1.9% increase compared to refunds issued during the same period in the previous year. It is important to note that this total reflects refunds from current-year returns only.
Earlier on the same day, Treasury Secretary and acting IRS Commissioner Scott Bessent mentioned on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” that refunds were up by 22%. However, the exact timeframe or comparison period for that figure was unclear. The Treasury Department had not responded to a request for further clarification by the time of the IRS announcement.
Why Early Refund Data Can Be Misleading
Despite the encouraging numbers, tax experts warn that early refund data can be deceptive. Andrew Lautz, director of tax policy for the Bipartisan Policy Center, a nonprofit think tank, explained in a tax season guide published on January 22 that refund amounts often start lower at the beginning of the filing season and tend to increase sharply in mid-February once many earned income tax credit (EITC) and additional child tax credit (ACTC) refunds begin processing.
Typically, taxpayers receive refunds when they have overpaid taxes throughout the year via paycheck withholdings or estimated tax payments. Conversely, taxpayers who underpay may owe a balance at tax time.
Lautz noted that after a mid-February peak, average refunds tend to decline slightly as the tax deadline (April 15) approaches. For context, IRS data showed that the average refund for the entire 2025 tax year was $3,052 through October 17, 2025. ### Larger Refunds Possible in 2026 Due to New Tax Breaks
The size of refunds this season has attracted political attention ahead of the upcoming midterm elections. President Donald Trump has touted 2026 as potentially the “largest tax refund season of all time,” citing recent changes implemented through his “big beautiful bill.” This legislation introduced new tax breaks for 2025, while IRS withholding tables were not adjusted accordingly, which could lead to larger refunds for many taxpayers.
However, experts caution that the actual amount taxpayers receive will vary significantly depending on their individual tax situations and the specific tax breaks they qualify for. Garrett Watson, director of policy analysis at the Tax Foundation, has emphasized that refund amounts will ultimately depend on how much taxpayers paid during the year and which new provisions apply to them.
Looking Ahead
The IRS is expected to release updated refund data on February 27, which will include refunds involving the earned income and child tax credits—factors that traditionally boost average refund amounts. Taxpayers are advised to prepare for potential fluctuations in refund sizes as more data becomes available.
For taxpayers filing this season, it remains important to submit accurate returns and ensure all necessary forms are included to avoid delays or audits. Those anticipating refunds are encouraged to monitor IRS updates and consider how new tax laws might affect their individual returns.
Kate Dore, CFP®, EA contributed reporting for this article.