Is This Crypto Winter Different? Bitcoin (BTC) Plummets 25% in a Month, Institutions Blamed
February 15, 2026 – Jakarta, Pintu News
The cryptocurrency market is once again rattled by a sharp correction as Bitcoin’s price falls more than 25% in just the past month. After reaching an all-time high over US$120,000 (approximately Rp2.02 billion) in October last year, BTC’s value has steadily declined, sparking fresh concerns about the arrival of another crypto winter.
However, analysts suggest that this downturn may mark a new phase in institutional adoption, where major financial players do not yet fully regard Bitcoin as a hedge asset. This has intensified debates over whether the current market cycle deviates from the familiar four-year patterns that have historically governed crypto markets.
Institutional Investors Entering, But Volatility Persists
Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, points out that Bitcoin’s price decline aligns with the well-known four-year crypto cycle—characterized by phases of euphoria, sharp correction, and consolidation before a new rally. From a peak exceeding Rp2 billion to considerably lower ranges, the move itself is not anomalous. Yet, the severity of this correction has raised questions about an evolving market structure.
Chris Waller, Governor of the U.S. Federal Reserve, notes that the entrance of large institutional investors has altered risk dynamics. Unlike retail investors driven by high-return-growth speculation, mainstream financial institutions tend to exhibit a lower risk tolerance.
Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, adds that retail investors enter crypto markets seeking eight to thirty-fold returns, not modest annual gains of 10%. This mismatch in expectations accelerates sell-offs whenever market sentiment sours, contributing to increased volatility.
Bitcoin Still Viewed as a Risk Asset, Not ‘Digital Gold’
Several market observers argue Bitcoin continues to be treated more as a risky asset than as the digital counterpart to gold. A Grayscale report highlights that Bitcoin’s price movements correlate more closely with high-value technology stocks than with physical gold. This implies that when risk-on sentiment in equities weakens, Bitcoin tends to decline alongside.
Bloomberg commodities strategist Mike McGlone refers to Bitcoin as a speculative asset which has yet to prove itself as a “digital gold.” He indicates that the US$60,000 level (around Rp1.01 billion) may only constitute a midpoint before the market potentially faces deeper corrections. Despite this, Grayscale maintains a long-term optimistic view, asserting that the Bitcoin network is likely to endure and preserve intrinsic value.
U.S. Regulatory Uncertainty Clouds Crypto Market Outlook
Ongoing regulatory ambiguity in the United States further dampens cryptocurrency market sentiment. The CLARITY bill, designed to establish clear oversight structures, remains stalled in the Senate. Disputes involving crypto firms like Coinbase and banking lobbyists over stablecoin regulation have slowed progress. This lack of clarity hinders larger institutional capital inflows.
Novogratz emphasizes that both Democratic and Republican parties have stakes in passing clearer regulations to restore market confidence. Grayscale also stresses that defined rules will boost stablecoin adoption, asset tokenization, and public blockchain applications. Meanwhile, Kaiko Research highlights that the US$60,000 price area represents a crucial technical support level to sustain the multi-year cycle framework.
Looking Forward
As Bitcoin and broader crypto markets adjust to shifting investor profiles and regulatory landscapes, the question remains whether this crypto winter’s pattern will differ from past cycles. Market participants are closely monitoring price levels, institutional behaviors, and legislative developments for signals on the next directional phase.
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Reference: Cointelegraph. "Is this crypto winter different? Key observers reevaluate Bitcoin." Accessed February 15, 2026.
Written by Kezia Marcellova, Pintu News