Iran’s Crypto Trading Volume Drops 80% Post-Strikes but Market Infrastructure Stays Stable, Says TRM Labs
March 2, 2026, 11:31 PM EST — Despite a steep decline in cryptocurrency trading activity in Iran following recent geopolitical tensions, the nation’s crypto ecosystem remains structurally sound, according to a new report published by blockchain analytics firm TRM Labs.
Sharp Fall in Crypto Volume Linked to Internet Restrictions
The report highlights that Iran’s crypto transaction volume on domestic exchanges plunged by nearly 80% between February 27 and March 1. This sharp contraction coincides with internet restrictions imposed in response to coordinated military strikes by U.S. and Israeli forces on February 28. The strikes, which had significant geopolitical repercussions, appear to have disrupted normal market operations by limiting user access and connectivity.
TRM Labs attributes the trading volume decline primarily to these mechanical limitations on internet access rather than to fundamental problems within Iran’s crypto trading infrastructure.
Domestic Cryptocurrency Exchanges Maintain Operational Integrity
Despite market disruptions, major Iranian crypto exchanges such as Nobitex, Wallex, and Tabdeal remain functional, though in a “risk-managed state.” The exchanges have implemented measures such as temporarily suspending or batching withdrawals, which helps reduce operational risks under the volatile conditions.
Following the strikes, Iran’s central bank mandated that these platforms halt trading of the USDT-toman trading pair, a key on-ramp bridging cryptocurrency with the Iranian rial, the domestic fiat currency. Trading resumed with noticeable signs of impaired liquidity, including thin order books and brief price fluctuations. However, the platforms continue to provide risk guidance to users to navigate the unstable environment.
Mixed Interpretations on Capital Flight
TRM Labs’ cautious stance contrasts with a recent analysis from Elliptic, another crypto intelligence firm, which reported a dramatic 700% spike in token outflows from Nobitex to nearly $3 million immediately after the strikes. Elliptic’s CEO, Tom Robinson, suggested this surge could indicate capital flight as investors sought to move assets out of Iran amid heightened uncertainty.
In comparison, TRM notes that the observed $3 million in combined inflows and outflows on Nobitex during the same period represents a level consistent with regular operational fluctuations. TRM emphasizes that such data should not be prematurely interpreted as definitive evidence of capital flight, considering prevailing access limitations.
Geopolitical Context and Market Implications
These crypto market developments unfold against a highly volatile geopolitical backdrop. The U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran reportedly resulted in the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country’s supreme leader. Iranian officials have since declared a refusal to negotiate with the United States, despite comments from U.S. President Donald Trump expressing willingness to engage Tehran in dialogue.
The continued instability creates an unpredictable environment for financial and crypto markets in Iran, reinforcing the need for cautious analysis of market data.
Conclusion
While Iran’s cryptocurrency trading volume has dramatically fallen amid internet restrictions tied to geopolitical conflict, TRM Labs’ findings suggest the nation’s crypto market infrastructure remains resilient and operational. Analysts urge prudence in interpreting reduced transaction volumes and outflows as straightforward indicators of capital flight, given the mechanical and regulatory factors influencing market behavior.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal, or financial advice.
Source: TRM Labs report and The Block coverage
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