Hedge Funds Ramp Up Australian Dollar Call Option Bets Ahead of RBA Rate Decision
March 12, 2026 — Bloomberg
Hedge funds are increasingly placing bullish bets on the Australian dollar (Aussie) in the options market as anticipation builds around the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) upcoming interest rate announcement scheduled for March 17. Market data suggest significant positioning that signals investors expect the central bank to deliver a rate hike.
According to trading figures from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the volume of call options—contracts that benefit from an increase in the Australian dollar relative to the US dollar—jumped to six times that of put options on Wednesday. Although the volume tempered somewhat on Thursday, call option activity remained more than three times higher than puts, underscoring sustained investor optimism.
This surge in call options comes amid widespread speculation among Australia’s financial institutions. Notably, three of the country’s "Big Four" banks are predicting the RBA will increase the cash rate by 25 basis points (a quarter percentage point) in its upcoming policy meeting. Investors are clearly positioning themselves to profit from a potential strengthening of the Australian dollar should the rate hike materialize.
The Australian dollar’s performance is often sensitive to changes in interest rates, as higher rates can attract foreign capital and boost the currency’s value. The current bullish options activity demonstrates that hedge funds and other market participants are expecting exactly such an outcome.
As the March 17 RBA meeting approaches, all eyes will remain on the central bank’s decision and subsequent signals on future monetary policy. For now, the options market activity reflects growing confidence in a hawkish stance, further intensifying focus on the Australian dollar’s trajectory in the weeks ahead.
Reporting by David Finnerty for Bloomberg