Stock Market Update: S&P 500 Futures Edge Up Ahead of Key Inflation Data as Oil Prices Surge Amid Iran Conflict
March 13, 2026 – New York City
Stock futures showed modest gains early Friday as investors brace for the release of crucial U.S. inflation data, while concerns over escalating tensions in the Middle East continue to impact global markets, particularly energy prices.
Futures See Slight Gains Before Inflation Report
Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 149 points, or approximately 0.32%. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures increased 0.25%, and Nasdaq 100 futures ticked up by 0.12%, signaling cautious optimism heading into the weekend.
Despite these gains, Thursday’s regular trading session was challenging for major U.S. indexes, with all three exhibiting their lowest closes in 2026. The Dow closed below the 47,000 mark for the first time this year following a nearly 740-point decline. The S&P 500 dropped 1.5% amid rising investor uncertainty.
Surge in Oil Prices Amid Iran Strait Tensions
Market volatility intensified as oil prices surged sharply due to geopolitical risk. Iran’s newly appointed Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, declared that the Strait of Hormuz—a pivotal oil transit route—should remain closed as a strategic measure against adversaries. This announcement exacerbated fears over energy supply disruptions.
The impact on the oil markets was immediate and dramatic. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures jumped 9.72%, settling at $95.73 per barrel. Brent crude futures notched a 9.22% gain, closing above $100 per barrel for the first time since August 2022, ending at $100.46. ### Market Concerns Over Energy and Inflation Persist
Chris Toomey, Managing Director at Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management, highlighted energy as the predominant concern among market hurdles, alongside developments in artificial intelligence and private credit sectors. Speaking on CNBC’s Closing Bell, Toomey stressed that if the Strait of Hormuz remains impaired beyond two or three months, the consequences could deepen significantly.
The spike in oil prices has intensified inflation worries, dampening investors’ hopes for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts later this year. Market sentiment toward rate easing has shifted considerably, with traders now anticipating only one rate cut, potentially as late as December, according to CME Fed funds futures.
Inflation Data in Focus
Attention is squarely on the upcoming personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index report for January, widely regarded as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. Consensus estimates project a 0.3% monthly rise in headline PCE and a 2.9% increase year-over-year. Core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to have grown 0.4% month-to-month and 3.1% annually.
The inflation report will likely influence Federal Reserve policy decisions and shape market direction in coming months.
Weekly Market Performance and Global Impact
Overall, the major U.S. stock averages appear set for weekly declines: the S&P 500 down roughly 1%, the Dow Jones off 1.7%, and the Nasdaq shedding about 0.3%.
Across Asia-Pacific, markets reflected similar caution amid the Middle Eastern conflict. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 declined 0.3%, Japan’s Nikkei 225 slid 2%, South Korea’s Kospi fell nearly 3%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was also poised for a lower open.
Fed Rate Cut Expectations Diminish Further
The ongoing Iran war and surging oil prices have led traders to abandon hopes for a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut. Early summer easing seems increasingly unlikely, with major rate reductions now not expected until late 2026 or beyond—even after President Trump’s nomination of presumptive Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who was anticipated to favor aggressive easing. Current Chair Jerome Powell is set to step down in May.
Reflecting ongoing market tensions, former President Trump urged Powell on social media platforms to enact immediate rate cuts despite rising oil prices and inflation.
Corporate Earnings in Focus
After-hours trading showed mixed results among leading corporations:
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Ulta Beauty shares fell 8% following a slight earnings miss for Q4; the company reported $8.01 per share versus expectations of $8.03, though revenue surpassed forecasts at $3.90 billion.
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Adobe stock dropped nearly 7% after CEO Shantanu Narayen announced his plan to step down once a successor is named, overshadowing strong first-quarter earnings beats.
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Lennar, the homebuilder, declined 2% after reporting its second consecutive quarterly earnings miss, posting 93 cents per share versus an anticipated 96 cents.
Investors continue to monitor the evolving geopolitical situation and inflation data closely, as both factors weigh heavily on market dynamics and economic outlooks.
For continuous real-time coverage and expert analysis, stay tuned to CNBC’s live updates.
Reported by Pia Singh, Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images News