Citigroup Lowers 12-Month Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Targets Amid US Crypto Regulatory Stalemate
March 17, 2026 – Reuters
Citigroup has downgraded its 12-month price forecasts for major cryptocurrencies bitcoin and ethereum, attributing the cuts primarily to the stalled progress of crypto regulation legislation in the United States. The sluggish movement in the Senate concerning key legislative measures is narrowing the window for regulatory developments that had been anticipated to stimulate demand through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and broader institutional adoption.
Stalling of U.S. Crypto Legislation Hampers Market Optimism
Citigroup’s revised outlook comes as the U.S. Senate encounters significant hurdles in advancing crypto market-structure legislation, especially the Clarity Act. Divergences over rules governing stablecoins and a shrinking timeframe for legislative approval in 2026 have dampened hopes for enactment this year.
Alex Saunders, Citi’s strategist, noted in a Monday research note that “regulatory catalysts will drive further adoption and flows but the window of opportunity for U.S. legislation this year is narrowing.” The Senate requires backing from at least seven Democrats to pass the bill, but internal disagreements within the Democratic Party are complicating consensus-building efforts.
New Price Forecasts Reflect Regulatory and Market Sentiment
Following the latest assessment, Citigroup lowered its 12-month target price for bitcoin from $143,000 to $112,000 and for ethereum from $4,304 to $3,175. The bank highlighted a recessionary macroeconomic backdrop that could push bitcoin prices as low as $58,000 and ethereum to $1,198 in a bearish scenario.
Conversely, under a bull-case scenario fueled by stronger end-investor demand, bitcoin could surge to $165,000, with ethereum reaching $4,488. As of early Tuesday trading (07:50 GMT), bitcoin was priced at approximately $74,298, while ethereum traded near $2,345. ### Market Sensitivities and Legislative Challenges
Saunders pointed out that ethereum’s price will be particularly sensitive to user activity metrics, which have recently weakened. Nonetheless, increasing trends in stablecoin usage and tokenization could stimulate greater interest and utility in the near term.
The likelihood of the legislation’s passage may diminish further depending on the outcome of the November 2026 mid-term elections. A gain in seats by Democrats could intensify divisions over crypto regulatory reforms, reducing chances for consensus. Some Democratic lawmakers advocate for provisions to prevent elected officials from profiting from cryptocurrency ventures—an issue gaining attention amid scrutiny over projects like the Trump family’s World Liberty Financial enterprise.
Legislative proposals have also suggested more stringent anti-money laundering rules, which could shape the regulatory framework should the bill advance.
Market Outlook Amid Regulatory Uncertainty
In light of this complex regulatory environment, Citigroup expects bitcoin to “range-trade” in anticipation of legislative news flow, with the $70,000 mark viewed as a critical level representing the price before the U.S. mid-term elections.
Reporting by Joel Jose in Bengaluru; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips
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