CryptoQuant Signal Flips Green, Indicating Potential Bull Market Shift for Bitcoin
May 13, 2026 — CryptoQuant’s Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator has shifted into bullish territory as of May 12, 2026, for the first time since March 2023. Market analysts view this change as a possible sign that Bitcoin is transitioning away from bear-market conditions, marking a potential early stage of a sustained upward trend.
What the Indicator Shows
The indicator is constructed using CryptoQuant’s proprietary Profit and Loss Index, which synthesizes several key metrics including the MVRV ratio, the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), and comparisons between the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) for long-term and short-term Bitcoin holders. When these combined measures cross a certain threshold, the Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator signals a shift in market regime.
Julio Moreno, the head of research at CryptoQuant, commented on the development via X (formerly Twitter), stating that the indicator’s green flip “often suggests that the worst phase of the correction has already passed and that market structure is beginning to recover.” At the time this signal was generated, Bitcoin was trading above $80,000, reflecting a roughly 35% rebound since the February 2026 lows near $60,000. ### Historical Context and Cautions
The last period when the indicator remained green was between March 2023 and August 2024. During that span, Bitcoin experienced a remarkable bull run, surging from approximately $20,000 to over $73,000 by April 2024. However, analysts caution that not all green signals have guaranteed a long-term rally. For example, in March 2022, the indicator briefly turned green but Bitcoin continued downwards for much of 2022 and into early 2023 before recovering.
Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, described the indicator as a regime-shift tool rather than a crystal ball for price prediction. He emphasized that confirmation of a full bull market requires sustained demand, higher liquidity, and acceptance of Bitcoin prices at elevated levels.
Julio Moreno also noted that several secondary metrics currently indicate some exhaustion in the market setup. He pointed out that Bitcoin must decisively break through the $82,000 resistance level, which has repeatedly capped recent rally attempts, before this signal can be considered fully validated by price action.
Supporting Institutional Activity and On-Chain Data
Supporting the notion of a market regime shift, institutional interest appears to be on the rise. In April 2026, inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) reached $2.44 billion—the largest single-month institutional accumulation since October 2025. Additionally, the on-chain Glassnode RHODL ratio—a metric that tracks the holding behavior of long-term versus short-term holders—is currently at 4.5. This reading is the third-highest in Bitcoin’s history, with prior similar levels observed during significant cycle bottoms in 2015 and 2022, suggesting a potentially strong foundation for future upward movement.
Expert Views on Bitcoin’s Outlook
Arthur Hayes, Chief Investment Officer of Maelstrom, stated that Bitcoin likely found its cycle bottom around the $60,000 mark earlier in 2026. He identified $90,000 as a critical price level, above which any further rally could accelerate rapidly toward Bitcoin’s previous all-time high of approximately $126,000. Complementing this outlook, analyst Lacie Zhang from Bitget Wallet indicated that Bitcoin is well-positioned for a breakout toward the $85,000 to $90,000 range. She attributed this potential to strong ongoing institutional support and continued inflows into Bitcoin ETFs.
Conclusion
While the CryptoQuant Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator flipping green offers optimism for Bitcoin’s future price trajectory, market observers are withholding definitive confirmation of a full bull market until key resistance levels are broken and demand metrics are sustained. Nonetheless, the alignment of technical, on-chain, and institutional indicators suggests that Bitcoin may be entering a new phase of market recovery and growth.
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