Significant Rise in XRP-Spot ETF Approval Odds Following SEC Appeal Withdrawal

March 24, 2025 – The anticipated approval of an XRP-spot Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) has gained substantial momentum, with odds now at 86% following the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) decision to withdraw its appeal against the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling. This development has not only bolstered investor confidence but has also positively affected XRP’s price outlook in a market already buoyed by rising Bitcoin values.

XRP-Spot ETF Approval Gaining Traction

The SEC’s withdrawal of its appeal marks a turning point for XRP, eliminating some of the legal uncertainties surrounding the cryptocurrency’s status in secondary market sales. This clarity could pave the way for the SEC to approve multiple pending XRP-spot ETF applications. Notable issuers awaiting approval include 21Shares, Bitwise Invest, Canary Funds, Franklin Templeton, Grayscale, and WisdomTree. While the final decision deadline is set for October 2025, earlier approvals remain a possibility.

Recent data from Polymarket, a crypto-betting platform, reflects a significant shift in expectations, with the likelihood of receiving ETF approval by December 2025 rising from 77% to 86%. Additionally, the probability for approval in the first half of 2025 also saw an increase from 33% to 46% following remarks from Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse.

The potential launch of an XRP-spot ETF could serve as a major catalyst for XRP’s price, particularly if institutional demand surges, which would echo past performance seen with other cryptocurrencies. For context, the introduction of Bitcoin (BTC)-spot ETFs previously triggered a remarkable 51% rally, helping BTC to reach a record high of $109,312. ## XRP Price Forecasts Under Legal and Market Influences

As of Sunday, March 23, XRP saw a rally of 2.95%, closing at $2.4410—a rebound from a 0.37% loss the previous day. This outperformance against a broader cryptocurrency market that rose 2.1% has raised the total cryptocurrency market capitalization to $2.76 trillion.

Several factors are influencing XRP’s current price outlook:

1. Ripple’s Cross-Appeal Strategy: A successful settlement could propel XRP beyond its previous all-time high of $3.5505, while ongoing legal uncertainties may drive it below $2.

2. Prospective XRP-Spot ETF Approvals: Approval of an ETF could help XRP climb toward $3.5505, but potential delays due to regulatory issues could hinder growth.

3. Macroeconomic Risks: Concerns regarding trade tensions and fears of a US recession could cause XRP to retest its February low of $1.7938. Conversely, easing tensions and a robust US economy might support XRP’s journey towards the $3 mark.

Bitcoin Market Looks Promising Amid ETF Flows

In parallel with XRP’s movement, Bitcoin has broken above the critical $85,000 threshold, closing at $86,117 after a 2.74% increase. This rise correlates with sustained inflows into the US Bitcoin-spot ETF market, marking their sixth consecutive session of growth, the longest streak since January.

The recent sentiment has shifted in favor of Bitcoin, particularly with the reintroduction of the Bitcoin Act by Senator Cynthia Lummis on March 11. If passed, this legislation would empower the US government to acquire one million BTC over five years with a 20-year mandatory holding period, which could significantly enhance institutional demand.

Potential Bitcoin Price Scenarios:

• Bearish: Any resurgence in trade tensions, economic recession anxieties, political opposition to the Bitcoin Act, or ETF outflows could drive BTC back towards $70,000.
• Bullish: Positive US economic data, reduced geopolitical risks, legislative advancements, and ongoing inflows could see BTC push towards its all-time high of $109,312.

Conclusion: Market Dynamics in Focus

As the cryptocurrency landscape evolves, a confluence of regulatory clarity regarding XRP, macroeconomic indicators, and institutional interest in BTC is set to shape market dynamics in the near term. Investor confidence, however, still hinges on the ongoing developments in Ripple’s legal battles and broader regulatory frameworks.

For continuous updates and expert analysis on these developments, stay informed with our insights.

About the Author:
Bob is an experienced financial industry analyst with over 28 years of expertise, covering various currencies, commodities, and asset classes. Currently, he focuses on market developments in Europe and Asia.

Share this article: