Market Volatility: Sensex and Nifty Strategies for the Upcoming Week
By Himanshi Singh, Updated April 12, 2025
As traders prepare for the upcoming week, the volatility seen in the Indian stock markets raises questions about the best strategies to adopt amid uncertainties. The Sensex and Nifty indices have experienced significant fluctuations recently, influenced by various global market dynamics, including U.S. tariff announcements.
Recent Market Activity
The past week has seen a rollercoaster of activity for the domestic benchmark indices. On one hand, the Sensex and Nifty posted gains on certain days, while on others, they closed in the red. The Nifty concluded the week approximately 0.33% lower, while the Sensex fell by 205 points. Notably affected sectors included Real Estate, Metal, and Information Technology, which witnessed sharp corrections of 4%, 2.9%, and 2.3% respectively.
On a more positive note, Friday saw a considerable uptick, with the Sensex climbing 1,300 points to finish the day at 75,157.26, while the Nifty gained nearly 430 points to close at approximately 22,800. Additionally, the India VIX, a measure of market volatility, peaked at 66% before easing to 20.11, indicating a potential reduction in uncertainty.
Technical Outlook for Next Week
Despite the recent rebounds, market analysts, including Amol Athawale from Kotak Securities, describe the current market environment as weak, uncertain, and highly volatile. The technical indicators reveal a long bullish candle on weekly charts and a promising reversal formation on daily charts, but the general outlook remains cautious.
“For positional traders, level-based trading is advisable,” stated Athawale, pointing out that crucial resistance levels sit around the 50-day and 20-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at 23,000 and 75,800 respectively.
Support and Resistance Levels
Sensex Forecast:
According to assessments, the retracement support for the Sensex lies at 74,200. As long as the index remains above this level, the pullback formation may continue. Should the Sensex breach the upper resistance of 75,800, it could potentially scale towards 76,400. Conversely, falling below 74,200 could shift market sentiment to a more negative outlook.
Nifty Forecast:
For the Nifty, support is positioned at 22,500. As long as it trades above this level, a continuation of the current trend is anticipated. Should it surpass the resistance level at 23,000, further movements towards 23,200 could occur. Hrishikesh Yedve from Asit C. Mehta Investment Intermediates highlights this positive trend, indicating that a bullish candle formation and closing above the 22,800 mark signal ongoing strength.
Focus on Bank Nifty
The Bank Nifty index has also shown signs of recovery after recent corrections, trading close to its 200-day SMA. According to market forecasts, significant support for Bank Nifty is found around the 51,000 and 50,500 levels. Sustaining above these points could strengthen the bullish sentiment in the sector. If the index manages to hold above 50,800, analysts predict this could ignite a new rally, targeting levels of 51,500 to 52,000. ### Conclusion
As traders gear up for next week, being aware of these technical levels and adopting a strategic approach will be crucial in navigating the inherent volatility of the markets. The advisory suggests that a "buy on dips" strategy may be prudent for traders, particularly in the context of the Nifty index.
Disclaimer: This article is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Readers are encouraged to consult with financial advisors before making any investment decisions.
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