Bitcoin Rebound Likely a ‘Relief Rally,’ Not Start of New Bullish Cycle, Says CryptoQuant
March 5, 2026 – By Yogita Khatri, The Block
Bitcoin’s recent price rebound, which saw the cryptocurrency climb above $73,000 earlier this week, has sparked optimism among investors. However, according to on-chain data analysis from CryptoQuant, this upward movement is more likely a short-term "relief rally" rather than the beginning of a sustained bullish cycle.
Ongoing Bear Market Despite Price Recovery
Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, emphasized in a Thursday report that fundamental and technical indicators continue to paint a bearish picture for Bitcoin. Despite the encouraging price action, Moreno explained, “Bitcoin is still inside a bear market, despite the recent price rally. Fundamental and technical indicators still point to a bear market environment. As such, the current rally is best interpreted as a relief rally inside the ongoing bear market.”
According to the firm’s data, spot demand for Bitcoin has seen a significant contraction improve from roughly -136,000 BTC at the start of 2026 to around -25,000 BTC, indicating that selling pressure has eased since early February. Notably, demand from U.S. investors has also strengthened, as reflected in the Coinbase Bitcoin premium metric. This premium, which tracks buying activity by U.S.-based traders, shifted from "deeply negative" earlier this year to its most positive reading since October, signaling a switch from contraction to growth in spot demand.
Decline in Selling Pressure
CryptoQuant also noted a reduction in selling pressure from both traders and long-term holders. Moreno pointed out that unrealized losses on Bitcoin have recently reached levels similar to those seen in July 2022, a period historically associated with diminished marginal selling because investors are less likely to exit positions at deep losses.
Long-term holder selling has fallen sharply, with the 30-day selling pace dropping from approximately 904,000 BTC on November 26, 2025, to about 276,000 BTC — the lowest level since June 2025. This decline in selling is helping to support the recent price rebound.
Bearish Market Signals Remain Strong
Despite these improving signs, the overall market environment remains bearish. CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin Bull Score Index currently stands at 10 out of 100, highlighting that the underlying fundamental and technical indicators typically associated with a bullish market have not yet turned positive.
Moreno cautioned that further upward movement will likely encounter critical resistance levels. The first key resistance is near $79,000, corresponding to the lower band of the traders’ on-chain realized price—a level that has historically acted as resistance during bear markets. Beyond that, a resistance level around $90,000 corresponds to the broader traders’ realized price and capped a previous rally earlier this year.
“Indeed, this band acted as resistance in mid-January after Bitcoin rallied from $80,000 to $98,000,” Moreno added.
Current Market Snapshot
As of the latest figures, Bitcoin is trading near $71,160, down nearly 3% over the past 24 hours.
About CryptoQuant and The Block
CryptoQuant is a blockchain analytics firm specializing in on-chain data for cryptocurrencies. The Block is an independent media outlet delivering timely news, research, and data on the crypto industry.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as legal, tax, investment, or financial advice.
Stay Informed
For more cryptocurrency news and analyses, visit The Block.