Ripple’s XRP Faces Potential 50% Decline, Warns Technical Analyst
In a fresh market forecast, veteran analyst Peter Brandt has issued a troubling outlook for Ripple’s digital currency, XRP, suggesting that the token may experience a significant price drop in the coming months. Brandt’s assessment highlights a potential decline of up to 50%, driven by observed technical patterns in XRP’s trading chart.
Bearish Forecast for XRP
On April 18, Brandt expressed his concerns regarding XRP’s future on his social media platform, X (formerly Twitter). He presented two contrasting market capitalization scenarios for XRP by the end of the current year. The first scenario predicts a market cap of approximately $116.67 billion, while the more pessimistic projection estimates it to fall to just over $60 billion. This would represent a sharp decline from XRP’s current valuation of around $2.09 per token and a total market capitalization of about $121 billion.
Brandt’s analysis is framed around a classic head-and-shoulders (H&S) pattern identified on XRP’s hourly chart, which historically indicates a potential trend reversal. He cautioned that if XRP’s price slips below $1.90, it would confirm this bearish formation. Should this occur, the price could feasibly plummet to as low as $1.07. Conversely, he noted that a breakout above $3 could invalidate his bearish outlook.
“XRP is forming a textbook H&S pattern. So, we are now range bound. Above $3.00 I would not want to be short. Below $1.90 I would not want to own it,” Brandt explained.
Recent Price Movements and Market Influences
Brandt’s warning comes in the wake of XRP’s impressive price surge since late 2024, where the cryptocurrency saw an approximately 300% rally, climbing to a high of $3.28 before retracting to its current levels. Investors attributed this momentum to the favorable political climate following Donald Trump’s return to the White House and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) decision to drop multiple lawsuits against several crypto companies, including Ripple.
This environment has reduced regulatory uncertainties and stimulated renewed interest in XRP, particularly with the recent launch of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) centered around the token. Ripple also introduced its own stablecoin, RLUSD, further tapping into new market segments.
However, Brandt’s technical analysis suggests that the recent surge may not be sustained, particularly under increased bearish pressure.
Ripple’s IPO Plans
As speculation mounts around XRP’s performance, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse addressed inquiries about the company’s potential initial public offering (IPO). In a recent update shared on X, Garlinghouse clarified that Ripple does not intend to file for an IPO in 2025. He emphasized the company’s financial stability and current focus on product development and growth rather than seeking outside funding.
"Will we IPO in 2025? I think that’s a definitive no… We’ve stated there are no imminent plans to go public," Garlinghouse stated. He also acknowledged the broader regulatory landscape as a potential factor in future business decisions, hinting that changes under new SEC leadership could influence whether Ripple revisits the idea of going public in the long term.
While many of Ripple’s sector peers are reportedly preparing for IPOs, Garlinghouse indicated that the company prefers to maintain its private status for the time being, allowing for further evaluation of how an IPO could best serve Ripple’s interests.
As the crypto market continues to navigate shifting dynamics, investors and analysts alike are watching closely, with Brandt’s warning serving as a reminder of the inherent volatility in digital asset trading and the need for cautious investment strategies.
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