Ibex 35 Opens July Calmly Eyeing Psychological Level of 14,000 Points
By Nieves Amigo – Bolsamania | July 1, 2025
The Ibex 35 began the month of July on a steady note, trading near 13,987 points, just shy of the key psychological barrier of 14,000 points. The Spanish benchmark index closed June with a 1.1% loss, pressured by geopolitical tensions, but still logged a solid 6.5% gain in the second quarter and is up nearly 21% year-to-date.
Market Overview and Outlook for July
The start of July comes under the shadow of looming tariff decisions. On July 9, the 90-day pause period on reciprocal tariffs imposed by the United States is set to expire. U.S. President Donald Trump has indicated he does not plan to extend this pause unless new trade agreements are reached. He announced that notification letters regarding the implementation of import taxes will be sent "very soon" to affected nations.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent mentioned that a number of countries are negotiating in good faith, yet warned that tariffs could revert to the initially announced levels from April 2 if no deals are achieved. Meanwhile, the European Union has offered to accept a universal 10% tariff on many exports to the U.S. to appease Washington, though it continues to negotiate for lower rates on certain strategic sectors.
On a related note, the U.S. government is encouraging other nations to follow Canada’s lead in withdrawing digital services taxes, with Kevin Hassett, the head of the U.S. National Economic Council, describing this as a key aspect of ongoing trade talks.
Economic Data Highlights
Several important macroeconomic indicators were released at the start of the month:
- Eurozone’s preliminary June Consumer Price Index (CPI) held steady at 2%, maintaining inflation around the ECB’s target.
- The U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index for June may show a modest improvement.
- Eurozone manufacturing PMIs showed a slight uptick; Spain’s PMI rose to 51.4 from 50.5, surpassing expectations.
- China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI surprisingly expanded to 50.4 from 48.3, beating forecasts.
- Japan’s manufacturing PMI improved to 50.1, slightly above contraction territory but below forecasts.
Central Bankers’ Summit in Sintra
A much-watched panel discussion among leading central bankers—Jerome Powell (Fed), Christine Lagarde (ECB), Andrew Bailey (BoE) and Kazuo Ueda (BoJ)—took place on Tuesday in Sintra. Powell signaled a likely return to interest rate cuts later this year, though he did not specify which of the four remaining Federal Open Market Committee meetings in 2025 will see the initial reduction. He noted a strong majority within the committee expects cuts to be appropriate before the year-end.
Corporate Developments: BBVA and Banco Sabadell Deal
On the corporate front, BBVA confirmed it will proceed with its takeover bid for Banco Sabadell despite government restrictions. The Spanish Cabinet blocked the merger for a three-year period, but BBVA’s president, Carlos Torres Vila, emphasized the significant value creation and enhanced competitiveness the deal would bring to shareholders and the Spanish banking landscape.
Torres Vila remarked, “Together, we will build a stronger entity with greater scale and the capacity to increase financing to families and businesses by 5 billion euros annually, boosting Spain’s economic growth.”
Banco Sabadell, which initially rallied on this news, later announced it has agreed to sell its British subsidiary TSB to Banco Santander for €3.1 billion. This transaction marks a strategic exit for Sabadell from the U.K. market. Santander’s acquisition of TSB reflects its continued commitment to expanding in the United Kingdom, a move underscored by Ana Botín’s description of the purchase as a key step in their UK strategy.
Notable Market Performances and Other News
- Top performers on the Ibex: Cellnex, Puig, and Telefónica showed strength.
- Lagging stocks: Acerinox, ArcelorMittal, and Indra suffered declines.
- In the Mercado Continuo: Amper plunged by 12.8% after announcing a €77.1 million capital increase aimed at growth in the defense sector.
Commodity markets have been active, with the euro trading at $1.1771 (-0.12%), Brent crude rising 0.3% to $66.90 per barrel, and gold advancing 1.4% to $3,354 per ounce. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rose to 4.263%. Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum remain volatile, with Bitcoin near $106,111 and Ethereum around $2,429. —
In summary, the Ibex 35 starts July in a relatively calm mood, cautiously approaching the 14,000-point threshold as markets digest global trade developments, central bank signals, and significant corporate transactions, all against a backdrop of mixed economic data from major economies.
For ongoing updates on the Ibex and global markets, stay tuned to Smart Money Mindset.