GBP/USD Analysis for March 4, 2026: $1.3372 Level Key for Bullish Breakout
By Adam Lemon, Chief Analyst and Director of Content, DailyForex
On March 4, 2026, the GBP/USD currency pair is showing promising signals for a potential bullish breakout, with the $1.3372 level emerging as a pivotal point for traders to watch closely. This analysis provides a comprehensive view of the technical setups, trade ideas, and market context to assist traders and investors in making informed decisions.
Technical Overview and Recent Performance
Last Thursday, our GBP/USD forecast highlighted a profitable short trade opportunity following the bearish rejection of the resistance at $1.3549. However, the anticipated bounce from $1.3504, which was expected to support a bullish rally, did not hold as strongly as predicted, cautioning traders against entering long positions prematurely at that time.
Currently, the technical landscape is shifting, indicating the potential for a bullish breakout. The horizontal level at $1.3372 stands out as a critical resistance and support zone for three key reasons:
- Clear Horizontal Level: It serves as a stairstep resistance, having acted as a barrier for price movement this morning.
- Confluence with Price Channel: The level aligns with the top of the linear regression price channel, reinforcing its technical significance.
- Formation of a Higher Low: The appearance of the first higher low suggests a possible trend reversal from bearish to bullish momentum.
These factors combined position $1.3372 as a crucial benchmark for traders considering long or short entries.
Trade Strategies and Risk Management
Long Position Ideas:
- Enter long trades upon a bullish price action reversal on the hourly (H1) timeframe at or near the levels of $1.3268, $1.3221, or $1.3153.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low to manage risk effectively.
- Once the trade gains 25 pips, adjust the stop loss to break even.
- Take partial profit by closing 50% of the position upon reaching a 25-pip gain, while allowing the remaining position to run for further gains.
Short Position Ideas:
- Consider short positions following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe at levels $1.3372, $1.3504, or $1.3536.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip above the recent local swing high.
- Similarly, adjust the stop loss to break even when the trade is 25 pips in profit.
- Close 50% of the trade at 25 pips in profit and hold the remaining open.
Identifying Price Action Reversals
The classic signs of price action reversals include hourly candles such as pin bars, doji, outside bars, or engulfing candles with a higher close. Traders are advised to monitor how the price behaves at these critical levels for potential entries.
Market Outlook and Economic Context
The focus is on the $1.3372 price point, where a successful close above this level could open the door for a rise towards $1.3500, a target free from significant resistance. Conversely, failure to break through might result in unpredictable and choppy downward movements, though long positions are currently favored.
There are no major economic events scheduled for the British Pound today. Meanwhile, for the US Dollar, key data releases include:
- ADP Non-Farm Employment Change at 1:15 pm London time
- ISM Services PMI at 3:00 pm London time
Traders should consider these releases as they may impact USD price action and subsequently influence the GBP/USD exchange rate.
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