Stocks Set for Worst 100-Day Start Since Nixon Amid Trump-Induced Uncertainty

By Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | April 29, 2025 | 6:37 PM UTC

In a tumultuous beginning to his second term, President Donald Trump has overseen a stock market performance that is poised to register the worst start in 100 days since former President Richard Nixon’s second term in 1973. This disheartening precedent reflects an escalating wave of volatility across the financial landscape, attributed largely to the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s economic policies.

Market Volatility Heightens

As the first 100 days of Trump’s administration conclude, investors from various sectors are grappling with a fluctuating market environment. The escalating fears surrounding trade tariffs have compounded anxieties about economic growth, consumer spending, and inflation rates. The S&P 500 index, which had recently reached a record high shortly after Trump’s inauguration, has now plummeted nearly 8%. This significant downturn has raised alarms about the potential entry of a bear market.

In early April, the Cboe Volatility Index, a key measure of market volatility, surged to a five-year high, mirroring similar spikes in foreign exchange and bond market volatility indicators. Despite some reduction in volatility metrics since then, these figures remain elevated compared to levels before Trump’s inauguration, indicating persistent investor anxiety.

Matt Thompson, co-portfolio manager at Little Harbor Advisors, commented on the broadening uncertainty, suggesting, "I think they’ve injected a sort of a semi-permanent uncertainty here." This sentiment is echoed by many market participants, who are bracing for continued fluctuations as the impacts of Trump’s policy decisions unfold.

Economic Indicators Present Mixed Signals

The current economic landscape reveals a complex picture. Despite the turbulence in the stock market, U.S. Treasury market returns, as measured by the ICE Bank Of America United States Treasury Index, are experiencing their second-best performance following a presidential inauguration, second only to former President Bill Clinton’s first term.

However, the impacts are palpable across other financial assets. The U.S. dollar has also encountered significant challenges during these initial days, with the dollar index dropping about 9%—marking its weakest performance at the start of a presidency. This shift underscores a growing skepticism among investors regarding U.S. assets.

Historical Context of Market Performance

The performance of the market during the early months of an administration can often set the tone for subsequent periods. In contrast to Trump’s previous term, where the stocks enjoyed a 5% increase within the same timeframe, the current administration’s beginning has seen much more drastic declines. Past administrations, like Nixon’s second term, experienced sharp dips amid political turmoil and economic uncertainty—conditions reminiscent of today’s market.

Chief strategist for geopolitical affairs and U.S. politics at BCA Research, Matt Gertken, noted that while a poor stock market start does not doom the entire presidential term, it could potentially set a precedent for future volatility.

Looking Forward: The Road Ahead

While a temporary pause on tariffs has provided a momentary reprieve, overall investor sentiment remains cautious. Shannon Saccocia, chief investment officer at Neuberger Berman Private Wealth, remarked that "the pace and the velocity of the activity is likely to slow down a bit" as the administration approaches elements that may require slower, more careful deliberation.

The upcoming days will undoubtedly be pivotal as investors closely monitor both the domestic and international repercussions of Trump’s policies. As the administration marks the end of its first 100 days, analysts will continue to assess not only market reactions but also their implications for the broader economic landscape.

With various sectors adjusting strategies amid a shifting geopolitical climate, it remains to be seen how Trump’s approach to trade—coupled with domestic economic initiatives—will influence market conditions in the near future. As the administration progresses, stakeholders should remain vigilant of ongoing developments and their potential impact on investment strategies moving forward.

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