ETF XRP and Solana Nearly Certain to Gain SEC Approval This Year, Experts Claim – Approval Odds Reach 95%
Jakarta, July 2, 2025 – Pintu News
Leading cryptocurrency experts from Bloomberg, James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas, have forecasted that 2025 will mark a transformative year for the crypto sector, driven by rising optimism about the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) approval of several spot cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Surge in Spot Crypto ETF Submissions Signals Regulatory Breakthrough
The surge in filings from major financial institutions alongside enhanced regulatory engagement has spotlighted several top digital assets as primary candidates for a new wave of crypto-based financial products. These ETFs, if approved, would represent significant milestones in integrating cryptocurrencies into mainstream financial markets.
According to a report from CCN, excitement is mounting over the possibility of multiple spot crypto ETFs receiving SEC approval within 2025. Prominent cryptocurrencies such as Litecoin (LTC), Solana (SOL), XRP, and Dogecoin are at the forefront of this wave.
Additional digital currencies attracting institutional interest include Cardano (ADA), Polkadot (DOT), Hedera (HBAR), and Avalanche (AVAX). Well-known firms like Grayscale, Canary, 21Shares, and Bitwise have submitted formal S-1 registration statements for ETF products based on these assets.
Favorable Regulatory Outlook for Major Tokens
The SEC has acknowledged all 19b-4 filings related to these asset classes, with official approval decisions anticipated between October and December 2025. Analysts emphasize a strong probability—estimated between 90% and 95%—that these leading tokens will receive SEC approval. The high probability is underpinned by these assets’ compliance with commodity standards and their involvement in futures markets regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas highlighted this optimism on Twitter on June 30, 2025, citing expected approvals in the latter half of the year:
“Here are mine and @EricBalchunas’ most recent odds on spot crypto ETF approvals by the end of 2025. We expect a wave of new ETFs in this second half of 2025.”
Particularly, Litecoin, Solana, and XRP stand out with a 95% chance of approval due to robust backing from issuers and positive regulatory signals. Dogecoin, Cardano, Polkadot, Hedera, and Avalanche also have strong prospects, with roughly 90% likelihood, situating them firmly within the "highly probable" approval category.
Challenges Remain for Newer and Controversial Tokens
Conversely, newer or more contentious tokens face higher uncertainty. For instance, Sui (SUI), supported solely by Canary, has an estimated 60% approval chance, complicated by unclear commodity classification and lack of regulated futures trading. Tron (TRX) and Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) are viewed with additional regulatory caution, each holding approximately a 50% chance amid unresolved futures regulation and commodity status queries.
Furthermore, Tron and Pudgy Penguins are unlikely to receive final SEC decisions until 2026, indicating prolonged regulatory review timelines for these tokens.
Upcoming SEC Decision on Grayscale’s ETF Proposal
An important imminent event is the SEC deadline on July 2, where a decision is expected on Grayscale’s application to convert its Digital Large Cap Fund (GDLC) into a spot ETF. The GDLC currently manages five major cryptocurrencies—primarily Bitcoin (80.8%), followed by Ethereum, XRP, Solana, and Cardano—holding $762 million in assets under management as of June 27. On June 30, the SEC officially acknowledged a revised S-3 filing from Grayscale, signaling ongoing regulator engagement. Nate Geraci, President of ETF Store, commented that this filing revision reflects positive regulatory momentum. If sanctioned, the GDLC approval could pave the way for individual asset-based ETFs including XRP, Solana, and Cardano in the near future.
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Disclaimer:
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References:
- CCN: "XRP, Solana ETF Chance: SEC Approval Experts" (Accessed July 2, 2025)
- Cointelegraph: "Analysts Tip 95% Chance Solana, Litecoin, XRP ETF" (Accessed July 2, 2025)
- Crypto News: "Bloomberg Analysts See 95% Chance of Solana, Litecoin, XRP ETF Approvals" (Accessed July 2, 2025)
Written by Deswita Zela
Topics: Crypto Analysis, ETF XRP, ETF Solana, SEC, International Crypto News