Exclusive Insight: Scaramucci Warns Tariffs Could Trigger Recession, Affect Bitcoin and European Economies

By David Marsanic
April 25, 2025 at 2:34 PM UTC

In a recent interview, Anthony Scaramucci, the founder of SkyBridge Capital and a former White House Communications Director under President Donald Trump, expressed his concerns regarding the potential economic fallout from U.S. tariffs on major trading partners. Scaramucci’s observations, particularly about the impact on Bitcoin and the broader global economy, highlight a complex interplay of market forces amid growing recession fears.

Tariff Risks and Economic Outlook

Scaramucci’s comments come against a backdrop of intensified market anxiety surrounding U.S. tariffs, which many traders believe could lead to a recession. According to Scaramucci, there is already evidence suggesting that the economic implications of these tariffs could be significant. In his exclusive interview with the investment platform Saxo, he elaborated on how these tariffs might influence both domestic and international economies.

"The short answer is yes, [the recession fears] will prevail," he stated, underlining a sense of inevitability regarding economic downturns if tariffs persist. Scaramucci pointed out the recent fluctuations in Bitcoin’s correlation with traditional markets, noting that the cryptocurrency has started to behave more like gold, which is often viewed as a safe-haven asset in turbulent economic times.

Bitcoin’s Role in a Recession

In the context of a potential recession triggered by U.S. tariffs, the dynamic perception of Bitcoin is evolving. Scaramucci highlighted that while BTC was previously closely tied to high-risk assets like the NASDAQ, it has demonstrated recent signs of independence from these traditional market influences. He noticed Bitcoin’s decreasing correlation with the MAG7 stocks, suggesting a shift in investor sentiment that may bolster its status as a hedge against inflation.

He remarked, "We only have three or four weeks of data where Bitcoin, which was tied to the MAG7 […] suddenly drops. […] It’s trading a little bit like gold in the last three weeks." This shift could indicate that as economic uncertainty grows, Bitcoin may become an increasingly attractive asset for investors looking to safeguard their wealth.

Impacts on Global Economies

Scaramucci did not shy away from discussing the wider ramifications of U.S. tariffs, suggesting that there would be no effective "decoupling" from global markets. He warned, "If the U.S. is going into a recession, it’s going to pull the rest of the world down into a recession." This assertion is reminiscent of previous global economic downturns, where U.S. economic health played a pivotal role in global market dynamics.

Interestingly, Scaramucci noted a relative resilience of European markets amid ongoing trade tensions. "The FTSE and the DAX, on a relative basis, are doing better than the U.S. market since the trade war started," he pointed out. This trend suggests that international investors are recalibrating their expectations regarding U.S. economic reliability, indicating a potential shift in capital allocation away from the U.S. towards Europe and other regions.

European Industrial Growth

Discussing European economies, Scaramucci pointed to Germany’s recent decision to increase military spending, which he suggests could bolster its industries and profitability. He noted that the UK is also taking steps to enhance its defense capabilities, which may contribute to overall economic growth in some of the larger European nations. "I think on the margin, some of the larger European industrial nations will do better," he stated, attributing their relative success to the unpredictability introduced by U.S. trade policies.

Conclusion

Scaramucci’s insights reveal a complex economic landscape shaped by U.S. tariff policies and their potential repercussions on both the domestic and global stages. As fears of a recession loom large, the evolution of Bitcoin’s role as a potential safe haven contrasts sharply with the challenges facing traditional markets. Investors and analysts alike will be watching closely to see how these dynamics unfold in the coming weeks and what further implications they may have for global economics and the cryptocurrency market.

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