XRP Coils Ahead of Key SEC vs. Ripple Deadline: Traders Anticipate Market Movements
By Leon Okwatch
June 12, 2025, 4:07 AM UTC
XRP is currently trading within a narrowly defined range as traders and investors increasingly focus on an impending court deadline in the high-profile legal battle between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Ripple Labs Inc. The price of XRP stands at $2.26 at the time of writing, reflecting a daily decline of 1.2%. This price point is situated near the center of its recent weekly trading range, which oscillates between $2.09 and $2.33. Despite the subdued price fluctuations, XRP has maintained a position above a critical support level and is exhibiting signs of market compression, traditionally indicative of an upcoming bout of volatility.
Market Dynamics and Trading Volume Insights
Current trading activity suggests a slight decrease in market participation, with the spot trading volume dropping by 4.1% from the previous day. In contrast, data from Coinglass indicates a rise in derivatives trading volume, which surged by 9.6% to reach $5.06 billion, although open interest dipped slightly by 2.6% to $4.12 billion. This contrasting movement in trading metrics indicates that while some traders are likely securing profits or hedging against an anticipated market swing, others are tentatively re-establishing their positions, setting the stage for potential market shifts.
The looming catalyst for these market dynamics is the SEC’s forthcoming settlement progress update, which is due to be submitted to the Court of Appeals by June 16, as part of the ongoing legal proceedings against Ripple. Despite the lack of significant advancements in the case since Judge Analisa Torres denied the SEC’s request for an indicative ruling, traders remain vigilant in anticipation of developments.
Legal Clarity Potential and Market Sentiment
Hopes for a resolution surrounding the SEC’s actions have dimmed, particularly since the SEC has a history of submitting last-minute motions. Nevertheless, should the SEC choose to withdraw its appeal, it could significantly clarify XRP’s legal standing, thereby paving the way for an XRP spot exchange-traded fund (ETF). Some market participants are already factoring this possibility into their trading strategies; for example, betting markets on Polymarket currently place the likelihood of an approval for an XRP ETF at 86% by the end of 2025, with a 26% chance of securing approval by July 31. From a technical analysis perspective, XRP is currently positioned just above its 20-day moving average, having traded within this zone for much of the past week. The contraction of Bollinger Bands indicates a cumulative reduction in volatility, reinforcing the expectation that a more significant price movement may soon unfold.
Resistance and Support Levels
XRP is currently testing a cluster of short-term resistance levels between $2.26 and $2.30 and is trading just beneath its 50-day estimated moving average. For upward momentum, the cryptocurrency will need substantial buying interest to penetrate this resistance zone. A successful rally above these levels could see XRP targeting the $2.50 mark.
Conversely, should XRP fail to hold at the $2.20 support level, it might slip towards the lower end of its recent trading range near $2.10, where previous buyers have stepped in. Market indicators display a neutral stance, with the relative strength index hovering around 49, suggesting slight recovery tendencies, while the MACD is poised just above the signal line, indicating a gradual build-up of buying pressure.
As traders await the SEC’s update and gauge its potential impacts on XRP’s market dynamics, the coming days are poised to be critical for the cryptocurrency’s trajectory.
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