Bittensor Price Faces Downside Risk Near $297 After Double Rejection and Bearish Signal
Bittensor (TAO) has encountered renewed selling pressure, with its price trading around $325.1—a 3.04% decline on the day—following a notable technical setback marked by two rejections at a descending trendline. This development, paired with bearish momentum indicators, suggests that the cryptocurrency faces a potential drop toward the $297 support level.
Double Rejection at Key Resistance
Over the past two weeks, Bittensor attempted twice to break above a critical resistance zone between $355 and $371 but failed both times, underscoring the strength of a multi-month descending trendline that has capped any recovery since November 2025. The initial rejection occurred near $371 on March 25, shortly after the network’s halving event and Grayscale Investments increased TAO holdings within its AI-focused fund to 43.06%. The second attempt, reaching about $355 on April 7, resulted in a lower high, confirming a bearish pattern as the price reversed downward.
These two rejection points have now formed a technical pattern signaling weakness, as Bittensor fails to sustain upward momentum beyond this resistance corridor. Since then, the price has retraced to the current level without making new gains above the rejection zone.
Bearish Technical Indicators Confirm
Crypto analysts have highlighted the recent confirmation of a bearish crossover in Bittensor’s daily MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator. The MACD line has crossed below its signal line—reading 19.6 versus 22.0 respectively—and the histogram shows negative momentum at -2.4. Although both lines remain above zero, indicating limited downside severity, this crossover reflects fading buying momentum following the rally driven by AI-sector enthusiasm in March.
On the four-hour chart, the MACD remains technically bullish with the MACD line slightly above the signal line. However, the momentum is weakening, and a potential bearish crossover on this shorter timeframe could strengthen the case for additional downward pressure.
Critical Support and Price Targets
Immediate technical support lies at $297.5, identified as both a prior demand zone on the daily and four-hour charts from March accumulation phases. Analysts note that a confirmed break and daily close below this level would expose Bittensor to further declines, with a logical target near $263.7, coinciding with the daily Supertrend indicator. Some analysts have even flagged a more severe correction toward $200 if the price closes sustainably below this latter support.
Conversely, a bullish invalidation of the bearish technical setup would occur if Bittensor registers a confirmed daily close above $371, which could pave the way for a rally toward the $400 mark.
Market Context and Institutional Developments
Open interest data from Coinglass reveals that trader participation has declined alongside recent price drops, suggesting that the selling pressure stems largely from long position liquidations rather than aggressive short selling. This dynamic points to a more measured and supply-driven price movement rather than a forced short squeeze.
Meanwhile, Grayscale’s recent filings to convert its Bittensor Trust into a spot ETF and its increased weighting of TAO within its AI-focused fund provide institutional validation. While these developments may not provide a near-term price floor, they add foundational support that could reduce the likelihood of a sustained breakdown below key support levels if overall market sentiment improves.
Analyst Perspectives
Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe has described the ongoing pullback as a “normal price behavior” following a strong triple-digit monthly rally. He sees the $297.5 region as a potential dip-buying zone rather than a critical breakdown threshold, projecting that this base could hold and set the stage for a renewed test of resistance in the near future.
Conclusion
Bittensor’s recent technical performance presents a cautionary outlook, with two consecutive rejections at a prominent descending trendline and a bearish MACD crossover suggesting a near-term downside risk toward $297.5. A break below this support might extend losses toward $263.7, while holding above it could signal consolidation before another upside challenge. Investors and traders should closely monitor these key technical levels alongside broader market sentiment to gauge Bittensor’s next directional move.
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