The Future of Coffee: Why There’s a ‘Genuine Risk’ We May Run Out
Coffee lovers worldwide may soon face a bitter reality: the possibility of losing access to their beloved brew. Experts warn that climate change, volatile market conditions, and shrinking suitable land for coffee cultivation present a "genuine risk that we won’t have coffee in the future."
Prices Soar Amid Climate Challenges
Global coffee prices, particularly for Arabica beans, have surged dramatically — with a 70% jump in 2024 and over 20% rise so far in 2025. This price volatility is largely driven by adverse weather conditions impacting the world’s leading coffee producers. Brazil, the largest coffee grower, faced a severe drought during its summer season, resulting in a disappointing crop yield. Similarly, Vietnam, the second-largest supplier, saw a 20% production decline last year due to drought, according to an industry report by Bernstein.
The repercussions extend beyond supply shortages. Coffee is one of five staple items responsible for approximately 40% of food inflation seen over the past year, underscoring its economic impact on consumers globally.
Voices from the Coffee Fields
Silvia Herrera, a second-generation coffee producer from Mexico, describes the situation as “crazy and impossible to manage” due to erratic weather patterns. She recounts losing half of her highest quality crop last year because of unpredictable rainfall patterns driven by climate change. She added that while coffee prices have risen since 2022, those gains don’t translate into profits for farmers like her.
“Despite price increases, we receive just 3% of the retail price of a cup of coffee,” Herrera explained. The unpredictable market makes it tough for producers to secure contracts, especially as buyers exercise caution. Herrera credits Fairtrade’s minimum price guarantees as crucial for sustaining production amidst these challenges.
The Fairtrade Perspective: A Market in Crisis
Max Milward, Fairtrade’s sustainable sourcing manager for coffee, calls current market conditions “extraordinary,” highlighting long-term volatility as a persistent challenge. Less than 10% of the global coffee industry’s value of around $200 billion remains in the countries where coffee is grown, leaving producers vulnerable.
Milward points to diminishing supply as a root cause of price spikes. For example, Honduran coffee farmers are forced to cultivate at higher elevations, seeking cooler climates less hospitable to pests and diseases. However, this strategy has a limited timeframe.
“Within 10 years, there might be no suitable land left to grow coffee,” Milward warned. Research from the Climate Institute supports this, estimating that 50% of current coffee-growing land may become unsuitable by 2050. #### What Lies Ahead? Industry Responses and Hopes
At the manufacturing end, roasters like James Sweeting and Simon Herring have faced increasing cash flow challenges amid the unpredictable market. Sweeting, whose company has been hand-roasting coffee since 1994, emphasizes the importance of maintaining customer stockpiles to buffer against market shocks.
Despite rising prices, Sweeting remains optimistic about ongoing consumer demand. “Coffee is still one of the cheapest things you can enjoy,” he says, noting that consumption continues to hold steady even as some consumers cut back on out-of-home purchases.
Sweeting hopes for a robust Brazilian harvest next year to ease supply pressures and potentially temper soaring prices. Nevertheless, uncertainty looms large.
A Call for Action
The coffee sector’s predicament reflects broader environmental and economic issues linked to climate change. Experts urge investment and support to address fundamental risks threatening coffee’s future.
Without concerted global efforts to combat these challenges, the comforting daily ritual of coffee drinking may become a relic of the past — a stark reminder of what’s at stake when climate and market systems fail to sustain vital commodities.
This report is based on an exclusive Sky News Money Blog investigation published on 13 December 2025.