Can Ethereum Price Reach $12,000? JPMorgan’s Fusaka Warning Rattles Bullish Predictions
By Kurt Robson | Published January 24, 2026 | Edited by Insha Zia
Ethereum’s latest price rally is facing fresh skepticism as JPMorgan analysts issue a cautionary note about the durability of recent network activity spikes following the Fusaka upgrade last December. This warning is shaking some of the more optimistic market forecasts that envision Ethereum (ETH) climbing into five-figure territory.
JPMorgan Urges Caution Amid Recent Surge
In a detailed report published Wednesday, JPMorgan strategists, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, highlighted that the sharp uptick in Ethereum’s on-chain activity may prove to be temporary. They pointed to historical patterns where previous Ethereum upgrades failed to generate sustained growth in network engagement.
“Historically, Ethereum’s successive upgrades have failed to meaningfully enhance network activity on a sustained basis for several reasons,” the analysts wrote. While acknowledging that Ethereum has recently benefited from lower transaction fees and record high weekly active addresses and daily transactions, JPMorgan warned that such spikes often normalize when initial enthusiasm fades.
Understanding the Fusaka Upgrade
The Fusaka upgrade, implemented in December 2025, was designed to optimize Ethereum’s protocol efficiency and reduce transaction fees, making the network cheaper to use especially during periods of high demand. This upgrade has indeed helped fuel a surge in on-chain activity by lowering user costs.
However, while cheaper fees tend to encourage more usage and experimentation, previous similar upgrades have not consistently resulted in lasting increases in network engagement or triggered sustained price appreciation.
Diverging Market Views: Bulls vs. Bears
Not all experts share JPMorgan’s cautionary stance. Tom Lee, co-founder of Bitmine, remains bullish on Ethereum’s long-term prospects. Lee points to growing institutional adoption and Ethereum’s expanding role within the financial ecosystem as reasons the token could see prices between $7,000 and $9,000 by the end of January 2026. Furthermore, Lee suggests that if Bitcoin reaches $250,000, Ethereum’s price could range between $12,000 and $22,000. Under more aggressive scenarios where Bitcoin climbs to $1 million, Ethereum could theoretically reach $250,000. On the contrary, asset manager VanEck presents a wide spectrum of price possibilities for Ethereum by 2030, ranging from a bearish $300 to a very optimistic $154,000 or even $360,000 under extreme circumstances. This extensive range has prompted some market commentators to question the practical usefulness of such projections due to their broad disparity.
Technical Analysis Signals Near-Term Risk
From a technical perspective, Ethereum’s near-term price outlook appears fragile. Victor Olanrewaju, an analyst at CCN, notes that Ethereum has recently failed to break above the resistance level near $3,438 on the daily chart—a sign sellers retain control. Momentum indicators have also weakened considerably, and ETH’s price slipping below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) hints at a possible shift from “buy-the-dip” to “sell-the-rally” behavior in the market.
Olanrewaju warns that if Ethereum breaks below the near-term support of $3,100, the next significant downside target is the psychological $3,000 level, especially if selling volume increases. Nonetheless, he cautions that the bearish case is not definitive. In a bullish scenario where momentum picks up, Ethereum could push toward resistance levels around $3,942, and possibly $4,300 if a breakout occurs.
Conclusion: A Divided Ethereum Market
Ethereum’s price trajectory remains a subject of heated debate among analysts and investors. While upgrades like Fusaka have temporarily boosted network activity and lowered fees, JPMorgan’s research urges caution about the sustainability of these gains. Meanwhile, bullish voices like Tom Lee’s point to Ethereum’s growing institutional footprint and strategic importance as reasons for potentially significant price appreciation.
As Ethereum navigates crucial technical levels and market sentiment continues to fluctuate, investors should remain vigilant and consider both the risks and opportunities presented in this dynamic environment.
About the Author
Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN specializing in crypto and emerging technology. With a background in journalism and deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers insightful and engaging reporting on innovation in blockchain, AI, and the digital world.
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