EUR/USD Price Forecast: Testing Nine-Day EMA Support Near 1.1850
By Akhtar Faruqui, FXStreet — February 13, 2026
The EUR/USD currency pair continues to navigate a challenging phase, trading around the 1.1870 mark during Asian hours on Friday. This marks the fourth consecutive session in negative territory for the euro against the US dollar, as market participants closely monitor key technical indicators and upcoming economic data.
Technical Overview
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently holds steady at 56, comfortably above the midpoint of 50, signaling sustained positive momentum despite the recent declines. While the RSI has eased slightly, it remains indicative of constructive momentum for the bulls.
From a technical standpoint, the EUR/USD pair is hovering just above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.1860, a critical short-term support level. The pair also remains above the 50-day EMA, which currently sits at 1.1766. Both moving averages are trending upward, reinforcing a medium-term bullish bias.
The positioning of the moving averages further supports this outlook: the nine-day EMA is positioned above the 50-day EMA, underscoring the strength of the short-term trend and maintaining a positive outlook for the euro’s recovery.
Potential Price Movements
If the EUR/USD pair sustains its hold above the nine-day EMA support at 1.1860, the path could open toward a significant resistance level at 1.2082. This resistance point marks the highest level seen since June 2021, representing a key target for traders anticipating a euro rebound.
Conversely, should the pair break below the nine-day EMA, this could trigger a retracement towards the 50-day EMA support near 1.1766. A further decline could see the euro test deeper support levels around the 11-week low of 1.1578, established on January 19. ### Broader Market Context
The EUR/USD’s recent price action occurs amid a broadly cautious market environment as investors await critical US economic data, particularly the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) release. The US dollar has remained relatively resilient, applying downward pressure on the euro.
Meanwhile, the Eurozone’s second estimate for Q4 GDP had a limited impact on euro valuations, with the market instead focusing on external factors such as US inflation trends and Federal Reserve policy outlooks.
Currency Performance Snapshot
Looking across major currencies, the euro was notably the weakest among several currency pairs today, particularly against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). In percentage terms, the euro declined by 0.11% against the NZD. Other notable moves include modest gains and losses across currencies such as the British Pound (GBP), Japanese Yen (JPY), Canadian Dollar (CAD), Australian Dollar (AUD), and Swiss Franc (CHF), reflecting a dynamic and fluid forex environment.
Summary and Outlook
In summary, the EUR/USD pair is at a technical crossroads, with the nine-day EMA at 1.1860 serving as a key level to watch. Maintaining support here could pave the way for an advance toward 1.2082, while a break below may expose the euro to deeper corrections. Traders and investors will be closely monitoring these levels alongside incoming US CPI data, which could provide fresh impetus for the pair’s direction.
About the Author:
Akhtar Faruqui is a Forex Analyst based in New Delhi, India, specializing in market trends and providing precise analysis on foreign exchange developments.
Disclaimer:
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Market conditions may change rapidly, and all trading decisions are the sole responsibility of the investor.
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