EUR/USD Forex Signal: Bearish Outlook Ahead of Key US Data
April 9, 2026 – The EUR/USD currency pair is showing signs of a bearish trend in the near term as traders anticipate crucial upcoming economic data from the United States. After experiencing some volatility, including a rebound influenced by geopolitical developments and market sentiment, analysts are advising caution amid mixed economic signals.
Current Market Dynamics
Recently, the EUR/USD pair edged higher, climbing to around 1.1720 from the March low near 1.1412. This recovery was partly driven by declines in the US dollar and crude oil prices following heightened tensions due to former President Donald Trump’s aggressive stance against Iran. However, despite this short-term uptick, the pair remains below important technical resistance levels, signaling persistent downward pressure.
Important US Economic Data on the Horizon
Over the next two days, investors will be closely monitoring several vital US macroeconomic releases:
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Gross Domestic Product (GDP): Economists forecast a significant slowdown in US economic growth, with the fourth-quarter GDP expected to show a modest expansion of just 0.7%, down from the previous 4.4%.
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Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE): As the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE report is critical. Market consensus anticipates headline PCE inflation at 2.8% and the core PCE (which excludes volatile food and energy prices) at 3.0%.
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Consumer Price Index (CPI): Scheduled for release on Friday, the CPI inflation data is expected to highlight rising inflation pressures, with headline CPI projected to increase to 3.4% from 2.4%, and core CPI to creep up from 2.4% to 2.7%.
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Factory Orders: Also due on Friday, factory orders are predicted to decline slightly by 0.1%, reflecting potential softening in manufacturing activity.
These figures arrive in the context of Federal Reserve officials’ recent meeting minutes, which underscored concerns about the economic impact of the ongoing geopolitical strife. Policymakers worry that escalating conflicts could drive inflation higher while simultaneously dampening growth prospects. Several officials indicated that a prolonged conflict might necessitate additional interest rate hikes to contain inflation, although a weakening labor market presents additional challenges.
Labor Market Update
March’s employment reports showed that the US economy added over 176,000 jobs with the unemployment rate dipping to 4.3%. However, this job growth was somewhat skewed due to the resolution of a strike at Kaiser Permanente and hiring activities in advance of the upcoming World Cup, making the data less indicative of underlying economic health.
Technical Analysis
From a technical standpoint, the EUR/USD pair recently touched a high of approximately 1.1723, approaching the 200-day Weighted Moving Average (WMA). Despite this, it remains positioned below the Supertrend indicator, which suggests that bearish momentum is intact. Additionally, the pair trades beneath a key major support and resistance pivot at 1.1788, reinforcing the view that sellers maintain control.
Given the prevailing technical signals and economic concerns, the EUR/USD pair is likely to resume its decline, with the immediate support target around the psychologically significant 1.1600 level.
Trading Recommendations
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Bearish Scenario: Traders are advised to consider selling the EUR/USD pair, aiming for a take-profit near 1.1600. A stop-loss should be placed at 1.1750 to manage risk.
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Bullish Scenario: If positive surprises unfold, buying near current levels with a take-profit at 1.1750 and a stop-loss set at 1.1600 may be warranted.
The expected trading timeframe for this setup is 1 to 2 days, around the release of the major US data reports.
Conclusion
With key US economic data set to be released shortly, the EUR/USD market is gearing up for increased volatility. The combination of softening US GDP growth, inflation trends, political tensions, and technical cues supports a cautious, bearish stance in the short term. Traders should remain vigilant and closely monitor incoming data and geopolitical developments to adjust strategies accordingly.
Author: Crispus Nyaga
Financial analyst, coach, and trader with over eight years of experience in the forex industry. Contributor to multiple reputable financial platforms.
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