EUR/USD Price Forecast: Rebounds Slightly Above 1.1600 Near Six-Week Lows
January 16, 2026 — FXStreet
The EUR/USD currency pair has edged up marginally above the 1.1600 mark on Friday, following a recovery from its six-week intraday low of 1.1589 recorded earlier this week. During the Asian trading session, the pair hovered around 1.1610, as cautious optimism surfaced amidst predominantly bearish technical signals.
Technical Set-Up Reflects Bearish Pressures
The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a widely followed momentum indicator, currently reads 35 on a 14-day basis, suggesting a neutral-to-bearish momentum tilt. This points to waning buying interest and heightened downside susceptibility for the euro against the U.S. dollar in the near term.
Further technical analysis of the daily chart reveals that the EUR/USD remains entrenched below both its nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). This positioning underscores a bearish bias, with the short-term nine-day EMA sloping downward beneath the medium-term 50-day average. The inability of prices to reclaim these moving averages is capping any significant rebounds and signals sustained selling pressure.
Potential Support and Resistance Levels
As the pair trades just above its recent low of 1.1589, set on December 1, traders are closely watching this level as critical near-term support. A decisive break below 1.1589 could pave the way for a deeper pullback toward the next key support at 1.1468, a level last seen in August 2025. On the upside, immediate resistance is identified at the nine-day EMA of 1.1648, followed closely by the 50-day EMA at 1.1673. Should the EUR/USD manage to break above these technical hurdles, it may alleviate some bearish pressure and open the door for an advance toward December 24’s three-month high of 1.1808. Beyond this, the pair could test more significant resistance near 1.1918, representing the highest level since June 2021. —
Broader Currency Market Context
According to market data on Friday, the euro displayed relative strength against the U.S. dollar, despite the subdued trading environment. Among major currencies, the euro was the strongest performer against the greenback.
A heat map of currency changes further illustrates the euro’s mixed performance against other key peers including the British pound, Japanese yen, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, and Swiss franc. While gains versus the USD were modest, the euro faced mild depreciation pressures versus some other currencies.
Analyst Commentary
Forex analyst Akhtar Faruqui, based in New Delhi, emphasizes the prevailing bearish technical environment but notes the potential for a short-term corrective bounce should the EUR/USD pair reclaim the critical moving averages. “While downside risks dominate near-term price action, traders should monitor the 1.1648 and 1.1673 resistance points closely as a break above these levels could signal a recovery toward higher targets,” Faruqui remarked.
Outlook
Overall, the EUR/USD’s trajectory remains cautious with a bearish undertone as it struggles to break out from recent lows. Market participants will closely watch how the pair behaves relative to its key moving averages and support levels for clues about the next directional move. With significant U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve commentary expected soon, volatility could increase, potentially providing new trading opportunities for the euro-dollar cross.
This analysis was prepared with assistance from AI tools and reflects market conditions as of January 16, 2026. Investors are advised to conduct their own research and consider risk factors before engaging in forex trading.
About the Author
Akhtar Faruqui is a Forex Analyst at FXStreet, focusing on global currency market trends and technical analysis. Based in New Delhi, India, he is committed to delivering insightful and timely forex news.
For more detailed chart analysis and live updates, visit FXStreet’s EUR/USD section.