EUR/USD Analysis for August 4, 2025: Euro Price May Continue to Remain in Sell Position
The EUR/USD currency pair continues to attract the attention of forex traders as it navigates a bearish trend amid mixed economic signals from both the United States and Europe. According to Mahmoud Abdallah, a seasoned forex analyst with over a decade of experience, the euro-dollar pair appears to remain in a sell position as of the start of trading on August 4, 2025. ### Current Market Overview
The EUR/USD pair is currently stabilizing near last week’s closing level of approximately 1.1586, after recovering from a notable decline that saw the pair sink to nearly two-month lows around 1.1392. This rebound is largely attributed to weaker-than-expected U.S. employment data, which has increased expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September.
The U.S. non-farm payrolls report for July showed an increase of just 73,000 jobs, falling short of the anticipated 100,000. Additionally, May and June employment figures were revised downward, prompting financial markets to price in a 75% likelihood of a Fed rate cut next month. This shift marks a significant change from the prior probability of 45%.
European Central Bank Outlook
In contrast to the U.S., the European Central Bank (ECB) appears less inclined to pursue further rate cuts in the near term. Inflation in the eurozone has stabilized at 2.0% in July, slightly above market forecasts of 1.9%, reinforcing the ECB’s cautious stance. Despite this, markets have moderately increased the odds for a 25-basis-point rate cut by December to 60%, up from 50% previously. The recent imposition of a 15% U.S. tariff on EU exports adds another layer of complexity to the eurozone’s economic outlook.
Technical Analysis and Trading Signals
Abdallah’s technical assessment highlights key support levels for the EUR/USD at 1.1530, 1.1450, and 1.1300. Resistance points are noted at 1.1660, 1.1740, and 1.1870. Traders are advised to consider buying the currency pair near the support level of 1.1490 with a target of 1.1700 and a stop loss at 1.1400. Conversely, selling opportunities may arise from the resistance level of 1.1700 targeting 1.1500, with a stop loss set at 1.1780. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) had recently dipped to 33, signaling strong bearish momentum, but currently hovers around 49, suggesting a balance between bullish and bearish forces. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator is showing early signs of turning upward, indicating a potential cautious shift.
Upcoming Economic Events
Today’s calendar includes several releases that may influence EUR/USD movement. Spain’s employment data at 10:00 AM Cairo time and the Sentix Eurozone Confidence Index at 11:30 AM Cairo time could provide directional cues. Later in the day, at 5:00 PM Cairo time, U.S. factory orders will be published, offering further insight into economic conditions.
Trading Recommendations
Given the current dynamics, traders are recommended to capitalize on recent price dips to build a solid buying base, executing trades with a risk-managed approach regardless of the prevailing strength of trading opportunities. Stability below the 1.16 level may reinforce bearish momentum, while a return to resistance zones near 1.1685 and 1.1740 is necessary to support any sustained upward movement.
About the Analyst
Mahmoud Abdallah brings 12 years of hands-on experience in the forex market and regularly provides technical analyses, market news, and free trading signals. His insights attract considerable interest among Arabic-speaking traders as he aims to simplify forex trading concepts, assisting traders in making informed decisions.
For traders seeking to engage with the EUR/USD forex pair, understanding the interplay of economic data, central bank policies, and technical indicators remains paramount. Staying updated with timely market analysis like this one from DailyForex can be essential for navigating the complexities of currency trading effectively.
Disclaimer: Trading forex involves substantial risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Traders should consider their investment goals and risk tolerance carefully before making trading decisions.
Everything is very open with a precise explanation of the issues.
It was definitely informative. Your website is very helpful.
Thank you for sharing!