EUR/USD Price Forecast: Testing Support Near 1.1850 at Nine-Day EMA
The EUR/USD currency pair is exhibiting cautious movement as it tests technical support levels, with investors closely monitoring the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.1850. This level is proving crucial for the pair’s immediate trend direction amid moderate trading conditions early Monday.
Current Market Activity
During Asian trading hours on Monday, EUR/USD edged slightly lower, hovering around 1.1870. The market shows signs of restrained momentum, confirmed by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holding at 56. This RSI level remains above the neutral midpoint of 50, indicating that despite a recent cooling off from overbought conditions, buying interest is still present and dips could be limited before buyers regain control.
Technical Outlook
The daily technical analysis reveals that the EUR/USD pair remains above its nine-day EMA, which currently sits near 1.1861. The upward sloping EMA, positioned above the rising 50-day EMA, underscores a continued bullish bias in the short term.
Maintaining the price above this near-term average is pivotal to preserving the upward momentum. Should the pair sustain daily closes above 1.1861, it may pave the way for EUR/USD to challenge the next significant resistance area around 1.2082 — the highest level seen since June 2021. Conversely, if the pair fails to hold above the nine-day EMA and breaks lower, attention could shift to the 50-day EMA at approximately 1.1769, which would serve as a broader support zone. A further decline may lead the pair toward deeper support near the two-month low of 1.1578, last established on January 19. Broader Market Context
EUR/USD’s tentative moves come amid relatively thin trading volumes, as U.S. market participants are absent due to Presidents’ Day observance. This liquidity condition often results in subdued price swings and can add volatility once markets reopen.
Overall, the current technical signals suggest that while the pair is facing some short-term pressure testing key support, underlying momentum remains healthy. Market participants will be watching closely for breaks above or below critical moving averages to gauge the next directional shift.
About the Author
Akhtar Faruqui is a Forex Analyst based in New Delhi, India, specializing in thorough market trend analysis and forex news reporting. Leveraging both technical tools and macroeconomic insights, he delivers clear and actionable market commentary for FXStreet readers.
Disclaimer
The information presented is for educational and informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. Trading in forex involves risk, and traders should perform their own due diligence before making any investment decisions.