GBP/USD Price Forecast: Bullish Outlook Maintains Above 1.3600 Ahead of UK GDP Data
February 12, 2026
The GBP/USD currency pair is showing signs of strength early Thursday, trading around 1.3635 in the European session and breaking a two-day period of losses. This upward movement comes as the market prepares for the imminent release of the United Kingdom’s preliminary Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for the fourth quarter (Q4), which are due later in the day.
Market Anticipation for UK GDP Report
Economic analysts anticipate a modest growth of 0.2% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) for the UK economy in Q4, an improvement from the 0.1% growth reported in Q1. Should the actual data exceed these expectations, it could provide additional upward momentum for the Pound Sterling against the US Dollar, often referred to as ‘Cable’ in forex trading circles.
However, despite sterling’s recent strength, traders remain cautious due to diminishing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in March. This caution follows stronger-than-expected US employment data, notably the recent Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report indicating an increase of 130,000 jobs in January — significantly above forecasts of 70,000. Additionally, the US unemployment rate dropped slightly to 4.3%, below the anticipated 4.4%. This resilient US labor market data potentially limits further appreciation of GBP/USD.
Technical Analysis: Sustained Bullish Momentum
From a technical standpoint, the GBP/USD pair continues to hold above the critical 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3447, endorsing a bullish bias in the short term. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 53.6 and rising, indicating strengthening momentum as it remains above the neutral 50 level.
Support is currently identified near the Bollinger Bands’ midline at 1.3618, which is acting as a floor during the ongoing pullback. On the upside, the near-term resistance is pegged at 1.3713, marked by the high reached earlier in February. Should the upward movement persist, the next resistance could emerge close to the upper Bollinger Band around 1.3873. The widening Bollinger Bands reflect increasing volatility, with price action hovering just above the middle line. This suggests growing buying pressure; a sustained advance toward the upper band is possible if demand continues. Conversely, a daily closure beneath the lower band would undermine the current bullish setup and could prompt a downward correction.
Understanding the Pound Sterling and Its Influencers
The Pound Sterling (GBP), known as one of the world’s oldest and most traded currencies, is significantly influenced by both economic data releases and monetary policy decisions from the Bank of England (BoE). The BoE’s primary objective is price stability, targeting inflation at roughly 2%. Interest rate adjustments are the BoE’s main instrument to either cool down inflation or stimulate economic growth.
Strong UK economic indicators, including GDP growth and robust employment figures, typically support the Pound by encouraging higher interest rates and attracting foreign investment. Conversely, negative data or subdued economic performance may weaken the currency.
Trade balance data also play a crucial role; a positive trade balance reflects higher demand for UK exports, which benefits the currency.
Looking Ahead
With today’s release of the preliminary Q4 UK GDP data poised to influence market sentiment, traders will be watching closely for signs that could confirm or challenge the current bullish trend. Given the supportive technical backdrop and the key fundamental report on the horizon, the GBP/USD pair could continue to experience upward momentum — provided external factors such as US economic strength do not dominate market dynamics.
Written by Lallalit Srijandorn, FXStreet
Disclaimer: The technical components of this analysis were assisted by AI tools.
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