Gold Price Prediction for This Week: Key Levels and Market Outlook
February 23, 2026 — The Times of India Business Desk
Gold prices are exhibiting an underlying bullish bias this week, driven by a confluence of economic and geopolitical factors. According to Manav Modi, Senior Analyst for Commodity Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd., recent developments suggest that gold may continue to find support amid evolving market conditions.
Recent Market Movements
Last week, gold notably breached the $5,000 per ounce level — a milestone achievement influenced by softer inflation data out of the United States. The less-than-expected rise in headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve could ease monetary policy with rate cuts in the near future. Supporting this sentiment, remarks from former Fed official Kevin Warsh reinforced the prospect of rate reductions, which helped keep real yields low and buoyed demand for bullion as a safe haven.
However, mixed signals emerged from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes, leaving some uncertainty about the precise pace and timing of interest rate cuts throughout the year. Geopolitical tensions continue to provide a floor to gold prices as well, notably surrounding the strategic Strait of Hormuz and ongoing negotiations involving Iran.
Moreover, physical demand remains robust as evidenced by over 50 million ounces exiting COMEX vaults this year — a strong indicator of investor interest outside the futures market. Market liquidity has remained thin recently, largely due to holidays in major economies like China and the U.S., which has kept trading ranges tight.
Key Factors to Watch This Week
Investors and traders will be closely monitoring several upcoming events and data releases that could influence gold’s direction:
- Comments from former U.S. President Donald Trump, which may impact political narratives and market sentiment.
- China’s progress in reopening and market access developments.
- U.S. economic indicators such as factory orders, Producer Price Index (PPI), and consumer confidence indices.
Technical Analysis and Key Price Levels
On the technical front, gold mini futures are currently consolidating after a significant rally. The daily chart reveals a short-term symmetrical triangle formation near the 158,000 price zone (likely a reference to a domestic futures contract pricing level), signaling a pause before the next major price move.
Bollinger Bands analysis shows gold’s price holding above the mid-band level around 153,000, reinforcing a bullish tendency. The contraction of the bands suggests an impending volatility squeeze, often a precursor to a breakout—either upward or downward—in the weeks ahead.
- Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance stands at 158,000 with a more substantial barrier near 165,000 if the upward momentum strengthens.
- Support Levels: On the downside, initial support is at 152,000 (mid-band), with stronger cushions around 145,000 and the lower Bollinger Band near 140,000. A decisive close above 158,000 could trigger a continuation of the uptrend, while a breakdown below 152,000 may lead to short-term corrective pressures.
Conclusion
Gold’s trajectory this week appears tilted towards bullishness, spurred by easing inflation concerns, dovish Fed expectations, and geopolitical uncertainties keeping the demand for safe-haven assets elevated. Market watchers should pay close attention to key economic data, political developments, and technical indicators that will shape gold’s near-term path.
Disclaimer: The views and predictions expressed by experts are their own and do not necessarily reflect those of The Times of India. Investors should conduct their own research or consult financial advisors before making investment decisions.
About the Author
The TOI Business Desk is a dedicated team of financial journalists focused on delivering comprehensive and timely business news and market updates to readers of The Times of India. Covering global economic trends, stock markets, and in-depth analysis, it helps readers navigate the complexities of the business world with insightful reporting.
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