The Crypto Crash of “10/11” and the Mystery of the Billion-Dollar Whale
By Charles-Henry Monchau, Banque Syz
Published October 21, 2025 — 7:00 AM
Introduction: The Day the Crypto Market Shook
On the evening of October 10, 2025, precisely at 8:50 PM UTC, former U.S. President Donald Trump sent shockwaves through the cryptocurrency markets. Via Truth Social, Trump announced a sweeping policy shift: a proposed 100% tariff on all Chinese imports, accusing Beijing of adopting an “extraordinarily aggressive” trade position. Within minutes, the entire digital asset market plunged into turmoil.
This caused a historic wave of leveraged positions liquidated—$19.1 billion wiped out in under 24 hours—the largest such event ever recorded in crypto market history.
The Perfect Short: A Whale’s Astounding Bet
What initially appeared to be a volatile political event soon revealed an even more intriguing subplot. Analysts closely examining data from Hyperliquid—a decentralized derivatives platform where trades are fully transparent—discovered an extraordinary short position opened just 30 hours before Trump’s announcement.
The position, totaling approximately $1.1 billion in short contracts on Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), was closed almost immediately following the announcement, netting profits exceeding $150 million. Such perfect timing led many to question if this was merely luck or the result of prior insider knowledge.
Anatomy of the Whale’s Trades
The story began on October 9 at 4:39 PM UTC. A significant crypto wallet transferred roughly $80 million to a new Hyperliquid trading account. Blockchain analysis firm Arkham (via social media platform X) tracked this account opening an initial short on Bitcoin worth about $420 million, which quickly grew to 3,600 BTC.
The following morning, the wallet sent an additional $30 million to a different Hyperliquid address, initiating short positions on Ethereum. By 3:30 PM UTC on October 10, the whale held 6,200 BTC shorts (valued at approximately $735 million) and 91,000 ETH shorts ($380 million), showing an unrealized gain exceeding $27 million, according to Lookonchain analytics.
In a final move, mere minutes before Trump’s announcement, the whale expanded the short by an additional 200 BTC.
The immediate aftermath saw the crypto market plunge. Within an hour, nearly all short positions on Ethereum and 90% on Bitcoin were closed, with over $250 million USDC transferred back to the originating wallet. Approximately $10 million USDC of the roughly $150 million profit was left in margin for a remaining Bitcoin short.
Financial commentators described the execution as “flawlessly perfect”—too perfect.
On-Chain Sleuths Enter the Fray
Crypto investigators quickly pounced. A pseudonymous blockchain researcher known as Eye (@eyeonchains) began publishing a series of blockchain addresses tied to the whale’s activity.
On October 11, Eye reported that one address involved in the short trades had transferred 40,000 USDT in September to Garrett Jin, former CEO of BitForex, a crypto exchange that collapsed in 2024 amid fraud allegations and a suspected $57 million exit scam.
This association ignited rampant speculation on social media. Arkham Intelligence dubbed the trader the “Trump insider whale.” Even Changpeng Zhao, former CEO of Binance, retweeted some of the posts for verification.
Garrett Jin denied any wrongdoing, claiming that the funds were client money for whom he merely “manages nodes and provides analytics,” asserting no connections with Trump or access to any insider information.
On October 12, the whale deposited an additional $40 million USDC and increased Bitcoin shorts. Jin clarified the position was a hedge for a client holding a large spot position, defending the strategy as based on macroeconomic factors like tariff hikes, declining market sentiment, correlations with U.S. tech stocks, and crypto sector overvaluation—not speculation based on secrets.
Nevertheless, public skepticism lingered, with researchers like Eye pointing to multiple wallets seemingly controlled by the same individual, moving large Bitcoin reserves and suggesting a coordinated single operator handling funds from multiple entities.
Other respected blockchain analysts weighed in. Emmett Gallic emphasized that he doubts Jin is the whale, pointing out the 40,000 USDT transfer is trivial compared to the whale’s usual dollar amounts. ZachXBT, another renowned on-chain expert, speculated the whale might be a close associate of Jin.
Theories and Speculations: Who Is the Real Whale?
If Jin isn’t the mastermind behind the billion-dollar short, who is?
Jin alleges the client on whose behalf he operates is the actual whale, implying that any possible insider knowledge was passed to this anonymous party, not Jin himself.
Eye’s investigations didn’t end there, offering broader theories:
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Chinese Government Leak: A Chinese foreign policy entity may have leaked impending U.S. trade policies to insiders like Jin or his client, given Jin’s reported connections within Asian crypto circles. Emmett Gallic confirmed Jin’s contacts with prominent Chinese whales.
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U.S. Insider Trading Network: An anonymous Eye cited unnamed sources claiming the existence of a small, politically connected American trader network with access to White House communications. This group allegedly anticipates policy announcements and leverages margin trades moments before public disclosure. Eye hinted that Jin or his client could be mimicking trades from this insider cluster, naming individuals like Zach Witkoff and Chase Herro as possible coordinators and mentioning Trump’s sons as occasional participants.
Eye ceased his public reporting shortly after, citing safety concerns.
No evidence has definitively proven any of these allegations, leaving the mystery unresolved and fuelling intense speculation within the crypto community.
An Intriguing Footnote: Jin’s Unusual Bet on Polymarket
Adding to the enigma, Emmett Gallic uncovered on-chain data showing Jin is also the second-largest bettor on a Polymarket prediction titled “Will Trump pardon CZ in 2025?” This market speculates on whether Binance’s former CEO, Changpeng Zhao, might receive a presidential pardon from Trump—a highly unusual connection further deepening the intrigue around Jin’s positions.
Conclusion: A Perfect Storm of Politics, Markets, and Mystery
The “10/11” crypto crash stands as a landmark event—both for its scale and the shadowy whale whose massive short positions foretold the market collapse. While official investigations and confirmations are absent, the incident spotlights the growing interplay between geopolitical developments, financial markets, and the opaque world of high-stakes cryptocurrency trading.
For investors and observers, this saga serves as a vivid reminder of how information asymmetries and shadow networks can profoundly influence volatile markets, and how, behind headline-grabbing crashes, a complex web of actors might be at play.
This article is intended for qualified investors residing in Switzerland and reflects information available as of October 2025.