Top Stocks to Buy Today: Expert Recommendations for July 4, 2025
As the Indian stock markets continue to demonstrate resilience amidst a complex macroeconomic and geopolitical landscape, investors are keen to identify promising opportunities that could offer healthy returns in the coming months. Bajaj Broking Research has provided fresh insights and stock recommendations for July 4, 2025, highlighting a cautiously optimistic view of key market indices such as the Nifty and Bank Nifty, alongside specific stock picks worth considering.
Market Outlook: Nifty and Bank Nifty
Nifty Index
In recent weeks, the Nifty index has upheld an impressive upward trajectory, bolstered by sustained investor confidence. The index touched a nine-month high of 25,669 points in the early trading session this week before entering a phase of consolidation within a 300-point range. This consolidation, showing a corrective bias, suggests some profit booking following the strong run-up.
During the current week, Nifty rebounded solidly from its immediate support zone between 25,350 and 25,400 points. Analysts at Bajaj Broking suggest that if the index maintains its footing above this support range on closing basis, it could initiate a pullback rally towards the 25,900-26,000 levels in the near term. Conversely, failure to hold above these levels might result in a retracement or sideways movement within a broader band of 25,200 to 25,700 points.
An encouraging technical indicator supporting this outlook is the significant recovery in market breadth. The percentage of Nifty 500 constituents trading above their 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) has surged from a low of below 10% in March 2025—a level often linked with oversold conditions and bearish sentiment—to roughly 59% currently. Historically, such breadth recovery preludes or aligns with sustained bull phases in the market, with previous instances showing this figure surging over 90%. This improvement in market breadth signals a shift toward a broader-based rally, where gains are supported by more stocks rather than narrow leadership, providing a constructive backdrop for medium- to long-term investors.
The technical support zone to watch closely remains between 25,000 and 25,200 points, corresponding to the confluence of the 20-day EMA and the upper boundary of the recent consolidation breakout. This zone, representing a “change of polarity,” is expected to function as a robust support level.
Bank Nifty Index
The Bank Nifty index has shown a steady consolidation with a positive bias near its all-time highs over the last month. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions that could typically inject volatility, the index sustained its upward momentum, rallying approximately 18% over the past four months.
Bajaj Broking anticipates an extension of the current bullish trend, targeting Bank Nifty levels between 58,500 and 59,000 in the upcoming month. This outlook is derived from measuring the breakout of a consolidation range between 55,150 and 57,050 observed over recent sessions.
While some consolidation at elevated levels is expected given the significant run-up, dips are being recommended as buying opportunities. Key support levels are cited between 55,500 and 56,000 points.
Stock Picks for July 4, 2025
UPL Ltd.
Bajaj Broking Research recommends buying UPL within the price range of Rs 670-690, with a target price set at Rs 747 over the next three months. A stop loss has been placed at Rs 643 to manage downside risk.
The stock has demonstrated a robust rebound, having formed a base at its 100-day EMA—a classic indicator of underlying strength. It is currently positioned near a breakout above its May 2025 high of Rs 699, offering a timely opportunity for fresh entry.
Technical indicators bolster this positive outlook: the weekly 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) has generated a buy signal by crossing above its 9-period average, confirming positive momentum. The price target of Rs 747 aligns with the 161.8% external retracement level of a prior decline from Rs 699 to Rs 618. Chennai Petroleum Corporation Ltd.
Similarly, Chennai Petroleum Corporation is recommended for purchase in the Rs 700-720 band, with a target of Rs 787 and a stop loss at Rs 663, aimed at an approximate 11% return within three months.
The stock has recently broken out above a descending channel pattern on the weekly chart, a bullish technical development supported by strong trading volumes. The base of the recent consolidation aligns with the 500-day EMA, adding further validation to the positive bias.
Additionally, the weekly stochastic oscillator has generated a buy signal by moving above its 9-period average, reinforcing the uptrend. The target price corresponds to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of a prior decline from October 2024 to March 2025, when the stock fell from Rs 999 to Rs 433. Investor Considerations
While these recommendations provide actionable insights, it is important to recognize that all stock market investments carry inherent risks. Bajaj Broking and The Times of India advise investors to consider their individual risk tolerance and investment horizon before acting. Moreover, market conditions can change rapidly due to external factors including economic policy shifts and geopolitical events.
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For continued updates on business news, market trends, and effective investment strategies, readers are encouraged to follow reliable business news sources and consult financial advisors as needed.
Disclaimer: The stock recommendations and market views expressed in this article reflect the opinions of the cited experts and do not represent the official position of The Times of India. Investors should conduct their own due diligence or seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
About the Author
The TOI Business Desk comprises a dedicated team of journalists committed to delivering timely and comprehensive business news coverage. Their expertise spans global and Indian economic trends, market analysis, and sectoral insights to help readers navigate the evolving business landscape.
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