Global Weekly Economic Update: November 24, 2025
Deloitte Insights Economic Research Center
Overview
Deloitte Insights, through its Global Economics Research Center, continues to provide critical analysis of recent economic developments around the world. Their latest weekly update for the week of November 24, 2025, offers an in-depth look at mixed economic signals from the United States, evolving monetary policy considerations, and notable trends in Japan’s economy. This report is part of Deloitte’s ongoing effort to equip organizations with proprietary research designed to turn aspirations into actionable insights.
Mixed Employment Report in the United States
The recent U.S. jobs report for September paints a complex picture of the labor market amid ongoing economic uncertainty, following a partial data blackout due to the government shutdown. The report draws on two major surveys: the establishment survey, which tracks payroll employment, and the household survey, which includes self-employed workers and broader labor force activity.
- Payroll Growth: The establishment survey indicates an increase of 119,000 payroll jobs in September, a stronger outcome than many analysts had forecasted. This represents the most substantial monthly increase since April 2025.
- Revisions and Sector Distribution: However, payroll numbers for May, June, and August were revised downward, revealing that employment had not grown robustly for several months. Furthermore, new job growth was highly concentrated—industries like healthcare, social assistance, food services, and state and local government accounted for nearly all the increase. Conversely, sectors such as mining, manufacturing, trade, transportation, warehousing, professional services, information, and financial services either contracted or grew minimally.
- Wage Trends: Average hourly earnings rose 3.8% year-over-year, maintaining a steady trajectory over the past six months. This rate of wage growth outpaces inflation, thus supporting consumer purchasing power. However, the lack of acceleration in wage increases suggests that labor market pressures are not intensifying inflationary concerns.
The household survey adds another dimension: while the labor force expanded significantly as more people re-entered the workforce, employment gains did not keep pace, pushing the unemployment rate up slightly to 4.4%—the highest since 2021. —
Implications for Federal Reserve Policy
The Federal Reserve has already cut benchmark interest rates earlier in the year to support economic growth. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s recent cautious comments reflect a recognition of the economy’s current resilience paired with ongoing inflation concerns. While further rate cuts are anticipated, they are expected to be moderate and gradual.
The ambiguous signals from September’s employment data may have limited impact on the Fed’s near-term decisions. Market watchers will instead be closely monitoring the forthcoming inflation reports, which will be released after the Fed’s next scheduled meeting. Notably, there will be no standalone October jobs report; instead, labor data for October will be included in the November report due December 16, after the Fed’s policy decision.
Broader U.S. Economic Signals Present Mixed Views
Beyond employment statistics, other economic indicators demonstrate contrasting trends:
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Consumer Sentiment: The latest survey from the Conference Board shows consumer confidence at its second-lowest level on record, falling 4.9% from October and down 29% compared to the previous year. Consumers complain about persistent high prices and diminishing income gains, underscoring ongoing economic anxieties. Inflation expectations remain elevated at 4.5% for the next 12 months, though this is an improvement from earlier in 2025 when tariffs pushed expectations as high as 6.5%.
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Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs): Preliminary flash PMIs from S&P Global provide a more optimistic outlook. These forward-looking indices signal expansion in manufacturing and services sectors, suggesting that business activity and overall economic growth may be improving.
The discrepancy between subdued consumer confidence and strengthening business activity highlights the complex interplay of factors shaping the U.S. economy at present, including inflationary pressures and policy uncertainty.
Japan’s Economic Outlook: Slower Growth and Policy Uncertainty
In the same update, Deloitte Insights highlights Japan’s economic challenges, characterized by:
- Weaker economic growth,
- Rising inflation,
- An uncertain monetary policy environment,
- Ongoing discussions of new fiscal stimulus measures.
Japan’s policymakers face a delicate balancing act as they strive to stimulate growth without exacerbating inflation—an issue closely monitored by global investors and economic analysts.
Conclusion
Deloitte’s weekly economic update underscores the multifaceted nature of the global economy heading into late 2025. As the U.S. grapples with mixed labor market data and consumer sentiment at a low ebb, monetary policymakers tread cautiously. Meanwhile, regions like Japan confront their own set of macroeconomic challenges. For businesses and policymakers alike, staying informed with analysis like Deloitte’s remains essential to navigating this complex, boundaryless economic landscape.
About Deloitte Insights
Deloitte Insights offers research and expert analysis across a wide range of sectors and topics, including economics, strategy, technology, workforce, and industry trends. The Global Economics Research Center is among Deloitte’s dedicated groups producing proprietary research to help organizations anticipate challenges and capture emerging opportunities.
For continuous updates, detailed reports, and analysis, visit Deloitte Insights at www.deloitte.com/insights.
Report compiled by Ira Kalish, Chief Global Economist, Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Ltd.
Contact: [email protected]