Global Weekly Economic Update: A Mixed Outlook in the US and Uncertainty Abroad
Deloitte Insights | Week of November 24, 2025
Deloitte Insights’ latest Global Weekly Economic Update provides a comprehensive look into the current economic landscape, highlighting a mix of encouraging and concerning signals from the United States alongside evolving conditions in Japan and other parts of the world. The report, prepared by Deloitte’s team of economists including Chief Global Economist Ira Kalish, delves into employment trends, consumer sentiment, inflation expectations, and monetary policy outlooks that business leaders and policymakers need to consider.
Mixed Employment Report in the United States
The recent US employment data paints a complex picture. The September jobs report, released after a data gap due to the government shutdown, offered both positive and negative signals that have split opinion on the economy’s trajectory.
The government’s establishment survey recorded an increase of 119,000 new payroll jobs in September—a somewhat solid performance and better than some analysts predicted. This was notable especially as the ADP private sector employment survey had anticipated a decline. However, downward revisions to payroll numbers from prior months (June and August) showed employment actually decreased in both, while May’s growth was minimal. Thus, the four-month cumulative job growth remains modest.
Digging deeper, gains were concentrated heavily in just a few sectors: health care and social assistance, food services, and state and local government accounted for 99.7% of the new jobs. Meanwhile, industries such as mining, manufacturing, trade, transportation, warehousing, and professional and business services experienced employment declines or only minimal growth. Information and financial services showed little change. This concentration of growth raises concerns about the health of the broader labor market.
Average hourly earnings rose 3.8% year-over-year in September, maintaining a steady pace over the past six months. Wage growth outpacing inflation supports consumer purchasing power, yet the lack of acceleration may limit inflationary pressure from labor costs. However, if inflation rises sharply next year due to tariff impacts while wages lag, consumer purchasing power could be eroded, potentially dampening spending. Deloitte’s forecast anticipates subdued consumer expenditure in 2026 aligned with these inflationary pressures.
Another significant development came from the household survey, which includes self-employed workers. Here, the labor force grew at twice the rate of the working-age population as more people rejoined the labor market, nudging participation rates higher. However, employment growth lagged, pushing the unemployment rate to 4.4%—its highest since 2021. —
Implications for Federal Reserve Policy
The Federal Reserve has already begun lowering benchmark interest rates earlier in 2025. Yet Chairman Jerome Powell’s recent comments suggest a cautious approach to further rate cuts, balancing evident economic strength with upward inflation pressures. Given the latest jobs report’s mixed messages, it is unlikely to alter the Fed’s near-term policy significantly.
Investors and observers are now focusing on forthcoming inflation data, which will come out only after the next FOMC meeting. Notably, there will be no separate employment report for October; that data will be combined with November figures released in mid-December, after the Fed’s scheduled meeting.
Contradictory Signals from Consumer Sentiment and Business Activity
The US economy’s mixed signals extend beyond employment. The Conference Board’s consumer sentiment index for November slumped by 4.9% from the previous month and is down 29% compared to last year, marking the second-lowest reading ever after the inflation shocks observed in 2022. The drop was largely driven by frustration over high prices and weakened income growth, despite consumer inflation expectations moderating from a peak of 6.5% earlier this year to 4.5% currently.
Conversely, the preliminary flash Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs) released by S&P Global show encouraging trends in manufacturing and services sectors. PMIs serve as forward-looking economic indicators based on components such as output, orders, employment, and prices. Readings above 50 indicate sector expansion, signaling potential resilience in business activity despite consumer concerns.
International Context: Japan’s Economic Challenges
The update also highlights Japan’s economic situation, marked by slower growth prospects, rising inflation, muddled monetary policy stances, and new fiscal stimulus measures. These dynamics add layers of complexity to the global economic environment, influencing trade flows and investor sentiment worldwide.
Deloitte Insights: A Resource for Navigating Complexity
Deloitte Insights and its global research centers continue to furnish proprietary research designed to help decision-makers translate aspirations into strategic action amid a boundaryless and disrupted world economy. By monitoring labor markets, inflation trends, consumer behavior, and policy signals across regions, Deloitte aims to equip organizations with the intelligence to thrive.
For more information and the full analysis, Deloitte encourages readers and business leaders to subscribe to their newsletters, explore curated video content, and participate in live webcasts to stay ahead in an ever-evolving global economy.
Contact:
Ira Kalish
Chief Global Economist, Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Ltd.
[email protected]
This summary reflects insights from Deloitte’s November 2025 economic update as presented on Deloitte Insights.