UBS Raises 2026 Gold Price Forecast Amid Rising US Macroeconomic Risks and De-Dollarization Trends
August 19, 2025 — In response to lingering US macroeconomic uncertainties and a pronounced global shift away from the US dollar, Swiss banking giant UBS has revised upward its gold price forecasts for 2026. The updated projections reflect expectations that sustained safe-haven demand will continue to underpin gold’s value throughout the coming year.
Revised Forecasts Signal Stronger Gold Demand
UBS analysts now anticipate that gold will average $3,600 per ounce in the first quarter of 2026, representing a $100 increase from their prior forecast for that period and also exceeding their current outlook for the end of 2025. Furthermore, they expect the average price of gold to climb even higher in June and September 2026, reaching $3,700 per ounce in both quarters.
This bullish revision is driven by anticipated robust appetite from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and central banks. UBS notes that an escalating global preference for bullion as a reserve asset alternative to the US dollar is a key factor supporting these higher price targets.
Underlying Drivers: US Risks and Geopolitics
“Our outlook reflects ongoing US macro-related risks, questions about Federal Reserve independence, fiscal sustainability concerns, and geopolitical tensions,” UBS analysts wrote in their note. “These factors underpin de-dollarization trends and increasing central bank gold acquisitions, all of which we believe will push gold prices even higher.”
Gold’s performance this year provides context for these projections. The precious metal surged to an unprecedented $3,500 per ounce in April 2025 amid heightened safe-haven demand fueled by global trade disputes and economic uncertainties. Central banks have continued to accumulate gold aggressively, approaching another year of buying totaling roughly 1,000 tonnes despite elevated prices. Year-to-date, gold’s value has increased nearly 28%.
Projected Gold Demand Growth to Reach Decade High
UBS expects central bank purchases to remain strong in 2025, albeit slightly below last year’s near-record levels. Accordingly, global gold demand is forecasted to rise by approximately 3% to 4,760 tonnes next year, marking the highest consumption since 2011. This trend reinforces gold’s position as a leading asset in the evolving financial landscape.
Complementing UBS’s upbeat forecasts, Citi recently adjusted its short-term gold outlook, setting a target range between $3,300 and $3,600 per ounce over the forthcoming three months. The investment bank cited tariff-related inflation concerns as a key factor driving near-term demand for the metal.
Market Context and Outlook
As geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic uncertainties persist, gold continues to be viewed as a critical safe-haven asset amid volatile global markets. The ongoing de-dollarization movement, driven by countries seeking diversification from the US dollar, positions gold as a preferred reserve holding for central banks worldwide.
Investors and market participants are closely monitoring upcoming US Federal Reserve minutes and speeches from policymakers, as these communications may influence gold’s near-term price trajectory. Meanwhile, central bank buying and ETF inflows are expected to remain significant drivers of the yellow metal’s demand and valuation.
In summary, UBS’s upward revision of gold price forecasts for 2026 highlights the growing importance of geopolitical and economic factors in shaping precious metals markets. With demand projected to rise to levels not seen in over a decade, gold appears poised to maintain its status as a key asset amid global financial uncertainty.
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