If the CLARITY Act Passes in May, What Could Happen to XRP?
By Sam Daodu | May 9, 2026
After months of regulatory uncertainty, the long-anticipated CLARITY Act—legislation that would officially classify XRP as a digital commodity—is finally poised to advance. The Senate Banking Committee, chaired by Tim Scott, has scheduled a crucial markup session for Thursday, May 14 at 10:30 AM EST. This step could set the stage for a significant shift in XRP’s market trajectory.
What Is the CLARITY Act and Why Does It Matter for XRP?
The CLARITY Act seeks to clarify the regulatory status of cryptocurrencies in the United States, specifically aiming to designate XRP not as a security but as a commodity. This classification is critical for XRP’s adoption, institutional investment, and overall market confidence, as it would remove many legal uncertainties that have weighed on the token.
Since early 2026, the bill has been caught in procedural delays, with the Senate Banking Committee marking a significant bottleneck. Its passage through the committee is a prerequisite for further Senate consideration and eventual enactment.
The Legislative Road Ahead: Five Steps Before the CLARITY Act Becomes Law
The bill’s journey to law requires several milestones:
- Senate Banking Committee markup and vote (May 14)
- Senate floor vote requiring 60 votes for passage
- Reconciliation with the Senate Agriculture Committee’s version (already passed January 29 on a narrow 12-11 vote)
- Reconciliation with the House version, which passed in July 2025
- Presidential signature
While the markup by the Senate Banking Committee is scheduled for this month, full Senate passage before the Memorial Day recess starting May 21 is unlikely given the limited number of working days and usual floor procedures. Nevertheless, President Trump has signaled he would sign the bill immediately upon passage, removing the final signature as an obstacle.
Potential Market Impact on XRP
Currently trading at approximately $1.42, XRP faces a resistance level near $1.45. Since mid-April, XRP has formed a cup-and-handle technical pattern, a bullish indicator often signaling a breakout.
Scenario 1: Committee Passage Only (May 14)
If the Senate Banking Committee advances the bill, XRP would likely break through the $1.45 resistance on positive momentum. A clean close above $1.50 could target a price range of $1.70 to $2.00, representing roughly a 20% gain from current levels.
However, substantial sell orders—around $3 billion—are placed just above this level, meaning that while a committee vote is a significant catalyst, it might not be sufficient to absorb the full selling pressure necessary to push prices substantially higher.
XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen inflows of $81.59 million in April, and a successful markup could accelerate these inflows, potentially doubling them and supporting a rally above $2 if the Senate floor addresses the bill swiftly in June.
Scenario 2: Full Senate Passage in May (Less Likely)
A full Senate vote passing the bill before the Memorial Day recess could unlock a far more substantial rally, possibly driving XRP into the $5 to $10 range. This would mark a historic surge fueled by the lock-in of federal commodity classification, unlocking billions in institutional capital.
Under this scenario, XRP could hit $3 to $4 by the end of 2026, with $5 within reach if ETF inflows reach around $5 billion. Continued and scaled institutional adoption could push prices even higher.
However, the fast-tracking needed for full Senate passage within the narrow window is improbable due to lingering opposition and procedural realities. Additionally, some parts of the bill still require finalization, injecting further uncertainty.
Why May Is a Starting Point, Not the Finish Line
The May 14 markup session is a key trigger, not the final payoff. The White House has outlined a roadmap aiming for Senate floor votes in June and full House passage by July 4. Given the Senate’s limited work weeks in June and the complexities of bipartisan reconciliation, the definitive resolution may arrive mid-summer or later.
If the markup stalls, or amendments delay the process—as happened in January—XRP may remain capped below $2 for the foreseeable future.
Summary
- May 14: Senate Banking Committee markup scheduled; realistic outcome is committee passage.
- If committee passes: XRP could surge to $1.70–$2.00 in the short term.
- If full Senate votes and passes in May: XRP might rally to $5–$10, a much more bullish and less probable scenario.
- President ready to sign immediately upon passage, removing final approval uncertainties.
The coming weeks are pivotal for XRP stakeholders, with the Senate Banking Committee’s vote set to break months of legislative stagnation. Whether this will unleash a modest rally or a historic surge remains contingent on how quickly and smoothly the bill progresses.
About the Author
Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst and writer specializing in blockchain and market analysis. With nearly a decade of experience demystifying cryptocurrencies, Sam contributes regularly to 24/7 Wall St. and other leading crypto publications. He balances technical insight with clear explanations, helping investors navigate the evolving digital asset landscape.
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